Madly Off in All Directions: Making Sense of Trump’s War on Allies
For decades, the U.S. has used national emergencies as a pretext to impose economic and political costs on adversaries and allies. Today, however economic coercion, along with a range of hybrid war fighting techniques, are an increasingly important American tool for exerting power. In this latest round of coercive actions, we see an unending leveraging of interlocking dependencies to advantage the US against Canada, Mexico, the EU as well as Taiwan, Panama and Colombia.
This is because the US is waking up to the fact being a hegemonic power requires a lot of effort. Costly warfighting; a defence budget nearing 1 trillion dollars, alliances that don’t function well and trade imbalances combine, in Donald Trump’s view, to disadvantage the U.S..
Trump is now seeking to recover these costs, even at the expense of global cooperation. Some believe this seismic shift is consistent with an American desire for greater military restraint and economic self sufficiency. While others argue that American exceptionalism immunizes the country from retaliation. But Trumps’ transformed policy agenda is problematic, not just for Canada, but other trading nations who are guided by reciprocity, mutual gains and trust.
On the one hand, Trump’s strategy aims to insulate the U.S. from the vagaries and uncertainty of a multipolar world, continuing a process of maximizing gains that has unfolded over the past 20 years. For example, over the last two decades America’s share of G7 GDP has surged, reinforcing its economic dominance among allies while simultaneously losing a share of global GDP to the BRICS nations.
On the other hand, Trump’s strategy does not guarantee a more stable or prosperous world. The president’s plans for global security and diplomacy favours short-term gains over long-term stability, leaving allies and adversaries alike to navigate the fallout. His emphasis on economic nationalism and transactional diplomacy means that U.S. engagement abroad will likely be reduced to a narrow focus on resource extraction, counterterrorism and rebuilding deterrence.
For example, Trump’s vision of Middle East peace prioritizes aggressive economic and diplomatic pressure on Iran and its proxies, alongside unconditional backing of Israeli security policies and land claims This strategy may embolden Israel’s deterrence posture, but will also escalate hostilities with Hezbollah, Hamas, and other regional actors.
Trump’s plan to end the war in Ukraine, while framed as a pragmatic move, gives precedence to disengagement over Ukrainian sovereignty, forcing European nations to shoulder not only the massive financial cost of rebuilding Ukraine but also the responsibility of managing relations with Russia.
Similarly Africa’s conflicts – already sidelined in global policy discussions-will receive even less attention under his administration, exacerbating humanitarian crises and regional insecurity. With USAID dismantled there will be a diplomatic vacuum; an opportunity for China and Russia to expand their influence through economic investments, military partnerships, and political interventions.
Is Canada prepared for this shift? In the midst of Trump’s fast moving agenda, Canada must recognize that its policy choices are growing more incoherent in a bifurcated strategic landscape, where economic coercion and geopolitical realignments require bold, independent decision-making. Ottawa’s defence, diplomacy and development policies are mirror images of US policies of a previous presidency and are perhaps incapable of adaptation. The reliance on military spending benchmarks, such as meeting NATO’s 2% GDP target, is a distraction from the deeper structural challenges Canada faces in navigating an increasingly fragmented global order.
Instead of resorting to retaliation, Canada must re-engage globally and forge new trade alliances, reducing its reliance on the U.S.. Canada’s leaders need to stop leading ineffective and divisive coalitions and start doing real diplomacy prioritising negotiation, and the establishment of clear communication channels with rivals, adversaries and allies to effectively manage our transition to a multipolar world.
David Carment & Dani Belo