1	GUYANA Conflict Diagnostic Genevieve Asselin, Aleisha Arnusch, Jennifer Graham, and Ana Ticas
2	Presentation Outline Conflict Background Key Stakeholders Structural Indicators à History of Armed Conflict à Governance and Political Instability à Population Heterogeneity & Demographics à Militarization à Economic Performance à Human Development à Environmental Stress à International Linkages Key Scenarios
3	Timeline: Conflict Background Colonialism Abolishment of slavery; indentured servants 1953 dissolution of government 1955 PPP splits 1962-4 near genocidal violence 1964 election: beginning of 28 year rule of PNC 1992- first free elections Contested elections of 1999, 2001, and electoral violence Current ethnic tensions and rhetoric of the leaders
4	Key Stakeholders: Internal People’s National Congress (PNC) People’s Progressive Party (PPP) United Force (TUF) Working People’s Alliance (WPA) Amerindians
5	Key Stakeholders: External Countries: Venezuela and Suriname Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Donors: World Bank (WB), United Nations (UN), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and International Development Bank (IDB) Oil Exploration Companies
6	History of Armed Conflict
7	Governance and Political Instability
8	Governance
9	Pop Heterogeneity
10	Population
11	Militarization
12	Economic Performance
13	Human Development
14	Environmental Stress
15	International Linkages
16	Essequibo region
17	Worst-Case Scenario 1) Oil discovery in disputed area 2) Breakdown in dialogue (PPP/PNC) 3) Capital flight; failure to reform 4) PPP elected but election disputed 5) Escalation of ethnic tensions 6) Venezuela invades 7) Widespread civil conflict
18	Best-Case Scenario Back to the negotiation table Reconciliation Economic recovery External Politics: settlement
19	Most Likely Scenario Election in 2006 Justice Issues Internal Dynamics External Dynamics with Venezuela and Suriname