{"id":2155,"date":"2020-10-21T10:12:04","date_gmt":"2020-10-21T14:12:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/?p=2155"},"modified":"2025-08-13T10:28:50","modified_gmt":"2025-08-13T14:28:50","slug":"the-limits-and-strengths-of-conflict-prediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/2020\/the-limits-and-strengths-of-conflict-prediction\/","title":{"rendered":"The Limits and Strengths of  Conflict Prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"w-screen px-6 cu-section cu-section--white ml-offset-center md:px-8 lg:px-14\">\n    <div class=\"space-y-6 cu-max-w-child-5xl  md:space-y-10 cu-prose-first-last\">\n\n            <div class=\"cu-textmedia flex flex-col lg:flex-row mx-auto gap-6 md:gap-10 my-6 md:my-12 first:mt-0 max-w-5xl\">\n        <div class=\"justify-start cu-textmedia-content cu-prose-first-last\" style=\"flex: 0 0 100%;\">\n            <header class=\"font-light prose-xl cu-pageheader md:prose-2xl cu-component-updated cu-prose-first-last\">\n                                    <h1 class=\"cu-prose-first-last font-semibold !mt-2 mb-4 md:mb-6 relative after:absolute after:h-px after:bottom-0 after:bg-cu-red after:left-px text-3xl md:text-4xl lg:text-5xl lg:leading-[3.5rem] pb-5 after:w-10 text-cu-black-700 not-prose\">\n                        The Limits and Strengths of  Conflict Prediction\n                    <\/h1>\n                \n                                \n                            <\/header>\n\n                    <\/div>\n\n            <\/div>\n\n    <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n<p>There are two major reasons why policymakers pay greater attention to case studies than empirical models. First, they are generally older, having completed their primary education well before the behavioral revolution, and the government doesn\u2019t provide much incentive to stay current in your field. Case studies are generally easy to understand and appreciate regardless of your educational level or methodological training. Second, the tension between qualitative and quantitative analysis in the government is, in times and places, much more acrimonious than it is in many political science departments, but this applies more at the level of the government analyst than the policymaker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/132\/Carment-Rowlands-Formal-Models-and-Conflict-Intervention.pdf\">Carment Rowlands Formal Models and Conflict Intervention<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There are two major reasons why policymakers pay greater attention to case studies than empirical models. First, they are generally older, having completed their primary education well before the behavioral revolution, and the government doesn\u2019t provide much incentive to stay current in your field. Case studies are generally easy to understand and appreciate regardless of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[4,1,11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2155","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-methodology-reports","category-news","category-recent-reports"],"acf":{"cu_post_thumbnail":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2155","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2155"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2155\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2158,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2155\/revisions\/2158"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2155"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2155"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2155"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}