{"id":2159,"date":"2020-10-21T10:22:21","date_gmt":"2020-10-21T14:22:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/?p=2159"},"modified":"2025-08-13T10:28:50","modified_gmt":"2025-08-13T14:28:50","slug":"prediction-of-intrastate-conflict-using-state-structural-factors-and-events-data-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/2020\/prediction-of-intrastate-conflict-using-state-structural-factors-and-events-data-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediction of Intrastate Conflict Using State Structural Factors and Events Data"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"w-screen px-6 cu-section cu-section--white ml-offset-center md:px-8 lg:px-14\">\n    <div class=\"space-y-6 cu-max-w-child-5xl  md:space-y-10 cu-prose-first-last\">\n\n            <div class=\"cu-textmedia flex flex-col lg:flex-row mx-auto gap-6 md:gap-10 my-6 md:my-12 first:mt-0 max-w-5xl\">\n        <div class=\"justify-start cu-textmedia-content cu-prose-first-last\" style=\"flex: 0 0 100%;\">\n            <header class=\"font-light prose-xl cu-pageheader md:prose-2xl cu-component-updated cu-prose-first-last\">\n                                    <h1 class=\"cu-prose-first-last font-semibold !mt-2 mb-4 md:mb-6 relative after:absolute after:h-px after:bottom-0 after:bg-cu-red after:left-px text-3xl md:text-4xl lg:text-5xl lg:leading-[3.5rem] pb-5 after:w-10 text-cu-black-700 not-prose\">\n                        Prediction of Intrastate Conflict Using State Structural Factors and Events Data\n                    <\/h1>\n                \n                                \n                            <\/header>\n\n                    <\/div>\n\n            <\/div>\n\n    <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;\">Intrastate conflict is defined by the occurrence of one or more highly destabilizing events collectively termed a crisis of interest (COI). Two separate two-year periods between 1990 and 2005 were examined in twenty-five globally dispersed countries. COIs occurred in about 6 percent of all the half-monthly periods examined While model accuracy (total correct predictions of COI and non-COI) usually exceeded 90 percent, the model did not generate sufficiently high and consistent precision (correct number of COI over total predicted) and recall (correct number of COI over total observed) for practical use.<\/span><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<h5 id=\"jcr\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/132\/JCR.pdf\">JCR<\/a><\/h5>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Intrastate conflict is defined by the occurrence of one or more highly destabilizing events collectively termed a crisis of interest (COI). Two separate two-year periods between 1990 and 2005 were examined in twenty-five globally dispersed countries. COIs occurred in about 6 percent of all the half-monthly periods examined While model accuracy (total correct predictions of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[4,1,11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2159","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-methodology-reports","category-news","category-recent-reports"],"acf":{"cu_post_thumbnail":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2159","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2159"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2159\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2160,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2159\/revisions\/2160"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2159"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2159"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2159"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}