{"id":2213,"date":"2021-03-13T10:00:47","date_gmt":"2021-03-13T15:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/?p=2213"},"modified":"2025-08-13T10:28:50","modified_gmt":"2025-08-13T14:28:50","slug":"2021-somalia-conflict-diagnostic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/2021\/2021-somalia-conflict-diagnostic\/","title":{"rendered":"2021 Somalia Conflict Diagnostic"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"w-screen px-6 cu-section cu-section--white ml-offset-center md:px-8 lg:px-14\">\n    <div class=\"space-y-6 cu-max-w-child-5xl  md:space-y-10 cu-prose-first-last\">\n\n            <div class=\"cu-textmedia flex flex-col lg:flex-row mx-auto gap-6 md:gap-10 my-6 md:my-12 first:mt-0 max-w-5xl\">\n        <div class=\"justify-start cu-textmedia-content cu-prose-first-last\" style=\"flex: 0 0 100%;\">\n            <header class=\"font-light prose-xl cu-pageheader md:prose-2xl cu-component-updated cu-prose-first-last\">\n                                    <h1 class=\"cu-prose-first-last font-semibold !mt-2 mb-4 md:mb-6 relative after:absolute after:h-px after:bottom-0 after:bg-cu-red after:left-px text-3xl md:text-4xl lg:text-5xl lg:leading-[3.5rem] pb-5 after:w-10 text-cu-black-700 not-prose\">\n                        2021 Somalia Conflict Diagnostic\n                    <\/h1>\n                \n                                \n                            <\/header>\n\n                    <\/div>\n\n            <\/div>\n\n    <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n<p>In many ways, the state of Somalia has become synonymous with ceaseless conflict, militia groups, and insecurity. This plague of insecurity has been brought on by many exacerbating factors in the latter part of 2020 and the beginning of 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic, uptick in insurgencies, and environmental adversities serve to highlight Somalia\u2019s fragility. This report bases its conflict risk assessment on the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) methodology to evaluate Somalia\u2019s performance. Using the nine clusters of indicators from the CIFP evaluative framework to examine Somalia\u2019s level of stability, this report analyzes internal and external stakeholders and demonstrates findings that contribute to the state\u2019s three case scenarios. This report concludes that the most likely scenario to arise within the first quarter of 2021 is a significant increase in armed conflict in Somalia, particularly in the area of Mogadishu, while the best case remains largely contingent on the success of an upcoming federal election, and the worst concerns the continued undermining of the authority, legitimacy and capacity framework.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/132\/2021-Somalia-Conflict-Diagnostic.pdf\">2021 Somalia Conflict Diagnostic<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In many ways, the state of Somalia has become synonymous with ceaseless conflict, militia groups, and insecurity. This plague of insecurity has been brought on by many exacerbating factors in the latter part of 2020 and the beginning of 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic, uptick in insurgencies, and environmental adversities serve to highlight Somalia\u2019s fragility. This [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[4,1,11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2213","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-methodology-reports","category-news","category-recent-reports"],"acf":{"cu_post_thumbnail":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2213","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2213"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2213\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2214,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2213\/revisions\/2214"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2213"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2213"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2213"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}