{"id":2377,"date":"2025-01-23T18:16:56","date_gmt":"2025-01-23T23:16:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/?p=2377"},"modified":"2025-08-13T10:28:50","modified_gmt":"2025-08-13T14:28:50","slug":"friend-or-faux-managing-the-end-of-the-special-relationship","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/2025\/friend-or-faux-managing-the-end-of-the-special-relationship\/","title":{"rendered":"Friend or Faux? Managing the End of the \u201cSpecial Relationship\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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\n Friend or Faux? Managing the End of the \u201cSpecial Relationship\u201d\n <\/h1>\n \n \n <\/header>\n\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n

Published in   Hill Times Friend or Faux  <\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Friend or Faux? Managing the End of the \u201cSpecial Relationship\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau\u2019s  <\/a>decision to resign<\/a> as leader of the Liberal party in response to growing political and public pressure comes at a crucial time for Canada, both domestically and internationally. Donald Trump\u2019s <\/a>looming tariff<\/a>s have forced Trudeau\u2019s government   to regroup and select a leader to   counter   the Conservatives in the next election and   push back against Trump\u2019s protectionist trade agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These dynamics set the stage for intensified competition between   two   front- runners, former Finance (and Foreign) Minister <\/a>Chrystia Freeland<\/a> and Conservative party leader <\/a>Pierre Poilievre<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The race is now Polievre\u2019s to win, according to all general election polling<\/a>, his party carries a commanding lead over the liberals.   Poilievre, has stated   that a response to Trump’s   tariffs   would require working with \u201cAmerican economic allies on the ground<\/a>\u201d to put pressure on Washington to back down. Poilievre is opposed to retaliatory   tariffs that would impact Canada\u2019s petroleum industry, arguing that Canada <\/a>should build more refineries and bypass the U<\/a>.<\/a>S<\/a>.<\/a> marke<\/a>t. To his thinking, Trump   would then be compelled to buy oil   from countries such as  Venezuela and Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When he does dip a toe into broader foreign policy it is hawkish. Back in October, Poilievre said that  an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities   would be, in his words, \u201ca gift by the Jewish state to humanity<\/a>,<\/u>\u201d a position more extreme   than that held by many members of the U.S. Congress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like the new President in the White House  Poilievre has consistently opposed <\/a>climate change policies<\/a>, such as the carbon tax, and, like Trump, he is enthusiastic about fossil fuel exports. He has been critical of work related to corporate interests   that is not conducive to the exploitation of energy and real estate while the core issues are the decline of Canadian innovation and competitiveness including investments in <\/a>Tier 1 manufacturing<\/a> and  <\/a>intellectual property research<\/a> where the country   is lagging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poilievre\u2019s populist   approach to small government   and divisiveness dates back<\/a> to the last Conservative prime minister,   Stephen Harper<\/a>. Harper reduced Canada\u2019s presence in multilateral institutions   while extolling the virtues of becoming a \u201cwarrior nation<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Foreign Minister, Freeland did not play any   <\/a>significant role at the United Nation<\/a>s. Nor did she   provide guidance on how Canada could <\/a>recast its place in the world<\/a> <\/u>when it   was most <\/a>desperately needed<\/a>.   Canada failed to secure free  trade agreements with both China and India<\/a>, while also losing a seat on <\/a>the UN<\/a> <\/a> Security Council<\/a>.<\/u><\/p>\n\n\n\n

 Today, Canada\u2019s foreign policy positions   and policies have become   <\/a>mirror images<\/a> of  US interests, whether these pertain to   regime challenges in    <\/a>Venezuela<\/a>, <\/a>Myanmar, Syria <\/a>and   Iran<\/a>,   sanctioning geopolitical rivals   Russia<\/a> <\/u>and <\/a>China<\/a> or more recently implementing a common   <\/a>Asia Pacific strategy<\/a>. There are of course some exceptions, such as Canada\u2019s long-  standing opposition to the U.S.  embargo on Cuba<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This lack of independent   diplomatic engagement comes at a time when   America is either withdrawing from or scaling back its contributions to  key organizations and global compacts such as the World Health Organization, the Paris Climate Agreement, the United   Nations, and the World Trade Organization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, Canada\u2019s foreign policy establishment   finds itself   desperately playing catch-  up to an ambitious Trump agenda, coming to terms   with the fact that its southern neighbor, which Freeland described as   the <\/a>\u201cindispensable nation<\/a>,\u201d is now in   a position to inflict significant harm<\/a> on the Canadian economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Finance Minister, Freeland chose a particular strategy, post-COVID, to   more <\/a>closely align<\/a> the Canadian economy   with the U.S.   through \u201cfriend<\/a>–<\/a> shoring<\/a>,\u201d while at the same time committing Canada   to <\/a>reducing supply chains<\/a> in support of delinking from China in favor of building \u201cFortress North America<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Freeland has been openly critical of Donald Trump which did   not help Canada\u2019s cause during the CUSMA negotiations. Although the trash talk<\/a>   continues to play   well domestically, the lack of substance<\/a>   and self-awareness is telling<\/a>. Canadian perceptions of Trump’s threats of <\/a>economic coercion<\/a> as distinctly anti-Canadian, overlook their roots in broader U.S. self-interest that existed   <\/a>long before Donald Trump came to power.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, within the G7, the U.S. share of wealth over the last 20 years has risen significantly from 33% to over 55%.   This shift drives foreign investment toward the U.S., to the detriment of other G7 nations, including Canada. The   <\/a>rise in U.S. economic dominance within the G7 contrasts with the G7’s overall decline relative to the BRICS nations<\/a>. Over the past two decades, the BRICS economies have grown to match G7 economies in global GDP share.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, Canada’s GDP per capita has declined relative to the U.S. Regional supply chains tied to   America have increased dependency,   but fail  to address Canada\u2019s   weak manufacturing base and low productivity<\/a>.   Despite promises to leverage immigration for growth, Canada struggles to retain skilled<\/a> <\/a> STEM graduates<\/a>, marking a <\/a>failure<\/a> of economic policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a nutshell, there are   some obvious and important   distinctions between Pierre Poilievre and Chrystia Freeland. But   there are also some very significant and <\/a>uncomfortable<\/a>   similarities<\/a>.   Indeed, the diplomatic approach taken by both individuals is likely to be more of the same in   following the U<\/a>.<\/a>S<\/a>.<\/a> lead<\/a> <\/u>on defense and security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One overlooked   question,   is whether a Canadian Prime Minister   will act as a <\/a>moderating voice<\/a> for a Trump administration that has the potential to become bellicose and divisive. On the one hand,   Trump has   signaled a mixed message of bringing restraint to U.S. foreign policy, by   ending its   forever wars,   a goal Joe Biden proved incapable of reaching.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A positive shift from Trump could become an opportunity for   Canada to renew   its   diplomatic mandate,<\/a> developing <\/a>a much different foreign policy<\/a>   agenda better  matched to the realities of a more polycentric and regional world <\/a>fatigued by<\/a> <\/a>  constant wars<\/a> involving the U.S. and its allies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand,   there is the   close-knit relationship between   neo-conservative U.S. elites and   think tanks<\/a> whose opinions on China, Iran, and Russia are   unambiguously hostile<\/a>, and the support and endorsements political leaders   like Freeland and Poilievre <\/a>receive<\/a> from these think tanks<\/a> and elites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Canada\u2019s next Prime Minister must take Canada towards self-assured and more <\/a>autonomous<\/a> statecraft. If Trump stays true to his promise of ending <\/a>forever wars<\/a> it is not at all clear that Pierre Poilievre and Chrystia Freeland are   up to this challenge because of their close ties to American   agendas<\/a> that <\/a>fav<\/a>or confrontation<\/a> over shared responsibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unlike Pierre Poilievre whose capacity for responsible statecraft   is untested  , Chrystia Freeland has shown a   fondness for<\/a>   building coalitions<\/a> <\/a> opposing adversaries<\/a>,   in contrast   to engaging in real <\/a>diplomatic dialogue<\/a> with  those adversaries. Not only does <\/a>exclusion<\/a> reflect a zero-sum framing and a pack mentality that rewards ideology and Manichaean thinking, it is also inherently <\/a>risky and destabilizing<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Carment<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Published in   Hill Times Friend or Faux   Friend or Faux? Managing the End of the \u201cSpecial Relationship\u201d Prime Minister Justin Trudeau\u2019s  decision to resign as leader of the Liberal party in response to growing political and public pressure comes at a crucial time for Canada, both domestically and internationally. Donald Trump\u2019s looming tariffs have forced Trudeau\u2019s government   […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2377","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"acf":{"cu_post_thumbnail":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2377","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2377"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2377\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2390,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2377\/revisions\/2390"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2377"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2377"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/cifp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2377"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}