{"id":2270,"date":"2015-07-17T17:28:30","date_gmt":"2015-07-17T17:28:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cciss.net\/?p=2270"},"modified":"2016-06-02T15:20:36","modified_gmt":"2016-06-02T19:20:36","slug":"pet-peeve-existential-threat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/csids\/2015\/pet-peeve-existential-threat\/","title":{"rendered":"Pet Peeve: Existential Threat"},"content":{"rendered":"

by <\/em>Professor Steve Saideman, Paterson Chair in International Affairs
\n<\/em> The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs<\/em><\/p>\n

One of my biggest pet peeves when I hear politician and pundits talk about threats to US or Canadian or whatever security, the phrase existential threat<\/b> is often stretched to the point of meaninglessness.\u00a0 There are many threats to security, and they range from minor\/modest to severe to, ultimately, existential.<\/p>\n

Climate change might be an existential threat to low lying island countries such as the Maldives.\u00a0 It is not an existential threat to the US or Canada.\u00a0 Sorry, it just isn’t.\u00a0 Something that presents significant harm does not threaten the existence of the United States or Canada.<\/p>\n

Nuclear annihilation is an existential threat.\u00a0 Which is why I concurred with General Dunford in his testimony today<\/span><\/a> when he said Russia is an existential threat.\u00a0 Why?\u00a0 Russia has enough nuclear weapons to lay waste to North America AND our relations are such that we have more than a just a bit of concern.\u00a0 Putin has been making nuclear threats to American allies–ones where the US has a commitment to defend.\u00a0 That defense is ultimately tied to a nuclear umbrella.\u00a0 So, yeah, Russia is an existential threat.\u00a0 France has enough nuclear weapons to destroy the U.S., but is not a threat, existential or otherwise.<\/p>\n

China has enough nuclear weapons at this point that it is probably an existential threat as well.\u00a0 Right now, its assertiveness is troubling, and could start a process that could lead to things getting out of control.\u00a0 But China is not issuing nuclear threats left and right.<\/p>\n

Iran is not an existential threat to the US or Canada.\u00a0 Even if Iran had a handful of nuclear weapons, they would not have a delivery system that would pose an existential threat to the US.\u00a0 Ye olde feare of a nuke in a suitcase is not an existential threat–again, harm is not equal to threatening existence.\u00a0 Sure, it would be an existential threat to Israel, but that is distinct from being an existential threat to the US.\u00a0 How is this different from Russia’s threat to the Baltics?\u00a0 Iran ain’t Russia, and the US does not have an Article V type treaty with Israel.<\/p>\n

Cyber?\u00a0 Costly, inconvenient but not existential unless the hackers can turn the computers into Terminators.<\/p>\n

Terrorism?\u00a0 ISIS?\u00a0 Not existential threats.\u00a0 Even if ISIS were able to get its hands on a nuclear weapon, that would not be an existential threat.\u00a0 The threat to the existence of some people (say, residents of NYC) is not the same as the threat to the existence of the US.<\/p>\n

Alien invasion?\u00a0 Well, if they have the aims of those depicted in Independence Day, then yes, that would be an existential threat.\u00a0 A meteor of sufficient size to lay waste to the planet?\u00a0 Hell yes!<\/p>\n

So, we need to address the serious threats, such as cyber stuff and Iran and climate change, but we need to keep things in perspective: they don’t threaten the existence of the US or Canada.\u00a0 Calling them existential threats is fear-mongering<\/b>.\u00a0 We have enough to be concerned about without inflating threats.\u00a0 That is how we got into Iraq in the first place, more or less.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

One of my biggest pet peeves when I hear politician and pundits talk about threats to US or Canadian or whatever security, the phrase existential threat is often stretched to the point of meaninglessness. There are many threats to security, and they range from minor\/modest to severe to, ultimately, existential.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2272,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nPet Peeve: Existential Threat - Centre for Security, Intelligence and Defence Studies<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"One of my biggest pet peeves when I hear politician and pundits talk about threats to US or Canadian or whatever security, the phrase existential threat is often stretched to the point of meaninglessness. 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