On Monday Canada tabled its new ISIL mission. There\u2019s much to applaud. But questions remain.<\/p>\n
Canada\u2019s pledge of over a billion dollars in humanitarian assistance is the plan\u2019s specialty. This is a generous and necessary offer. The money will go towards sheltering and assisting refugees fleeing the combined barbarity of ISIL and the Syrian regime.<\/p>\n
Importantly, this initiative is rooted to a feasible, long-term strategy. The goal is to bolster frontline states, like Jordan and Lebanon, against the crush of refugees, and help alleviate Europe\u2019s migrant crisis. Canada\u2019s contribution makes sense.<\/p>\n
Other elements of Canada\u2019s plan are less obvious.<\/p>\n
Take the bombing mission. Providing our allies with refueling and surveillance aircraft while withdrawing our fighter jets suggests Canada is eager to help the military campaign but unwilling to pull the trigger itself. Why is that?<\/p>\n
When initiated in 2014 Canada\u2019s contribution to the coalition\u2019s strategy was based on containing ISIL\u2019s momentum by destroying its capabilities. Coalition aircraft later aided local forces in recapturing towns from ISIL. Both tasks were necessary. But they\u2019re also ongoing. Preparations to retake Mosul, Iraq\u2019s second largest city, hinge on coalition air support of Iraqi ground forces.<\/p>\n
Canada\u2019s position seems to be that while the larger strategy still makes sense, we\u2019ve nonetheless found compelling reasons not to directly implement it. We\u2019re leaving center stage to assist from the wings.<\/p>\n
The task of squaring this circle landed on Chief of Defence Staff Jonathan Vance. \u201cThere is sufficient air power available to the coalition, from those who are contributing air power,\u201d he explained, \u201cfor the coalition to achieve the objectives it needs to achieve with air strikes.\u201d Canada is \u201cgoing to take this point in time in the campaign [to] intensify the effort on ground operations against ISIL.\u201d<\/p>\n
Syntax aside, the argument is compelling. In the air, the coalition is maxed out. On the ground, more of Canada is needed.<\/p>\n
Hence Canada\u2019s other shift: a trebling of its training mission. Canada currently has 69 soldiers training Iraqis, mainly in the Kurdish north. That figure will jump to about 200.<\/p>\n
The \u201ctrain, advise, and assist\u201d mission rests on a strategic imperative: local forces must defeat ISIL. Western nations aren\u2019t prepared to deploy ground troops. And an indigenous victory is the only way to truly vanquish ISIL. So beefing up the locals is necessary. The liberation of Ramadi, west of Baghdad, and Sinjar, in northwest Iraq, late last year by Iraqi and Kurdish forces \u2013 both backed by coalition air power \u2013 is the preferred model.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s here that Canada\u2019s approach may run into some difficulty.<\/p>\n
While a potent force, the Kurds may hesitate to liberate Mosul. Having controlled the city since 2014, ISIL is entrenched. Only fierce urban combat will dislodge it. The city also rests beyond the territory Iraqi Kurds envisage for their future state. It isn\u2019t clear what diplomatic leavers Canada might use to convince its Kurdish allies to set aside their national aspirations for the good of a unified Iraq.<\/p>\n
Nor does Canada\u2019s training mission seem to address the issue of vetting and equipping the Sunni Iraqi and Syrian partners needed to subdue ISIL. The United States folded its $500-million campaign to train Syrian rebels last October. Its subsequent plan to equip anti-ISIL rebels with small arms was slammed after weapons ended up in jihadist hands. Canada, now promising to arm Iraqis, will want to avoid this fate.<\/p>\n
Canada\u2019s ISIL mission is heading in new and important directions. But the government has yet to answer whether the plan is both operationally feasible and strategically sound.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
On Monday Canada tabled its new ISIL mission. There\u2019s much to applaud. But questions remain. Canada\u2019s pledge of over a billion dollars in humanitarian assistance is the plan\u2019s specialty. This is a generous and necessary offer. The money will go towards sheltering and assisting refugees fleeing the combined barbarity of ISIL and the Syrian regime. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":3958,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n