{"id":2578,"date":"2026-06-22T14:15:42","date_gmt":"2026-06-22T18:15:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/?p=2578"},"modified":"2026-06-22T14:15:43","modified_gmt":"2026-06-22T18:15:43","slug":"willing-to-do-nothing-addressing-the-societal-resilience-gap-in-estonia-and-latvia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/2026\/willing-to-do-nothing-addressing-the-societal-resilience-gap-in-estonia-and-latvia\/","title":{"rendered":"Willing to do Nothing: Addressing the Societal Resilience Gap in Estonia and Latvia"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"w-screen px-6 cu-section cu-section--white ml-offset-center md:px-8 lg:px-14\">\n    <div class=\"space-y-6 cu-max-w-child-5xl  md:space-y-10 cu-prose-first-last\">\n\n            <div class=\"cu-textmedia flex flex-col lg:flex-row mx-auto gap-6 md:gap-10 my-6 md:my-12 first:mt-0 max-w-5xl\">\n        <div class=\"justify-start cu-textmedia-content cu-prose-first-last\" style=\"flex: 0 0 100%;\">\n            <header class=\"font-light prose-xl cu-pageheader md:prose-2xl cu-component-updated cu-prose-first-last\">\n                                    <h1 class=\"cu-prose-first-last font-semibold !mt-2 mb-4 md:mb-6 relative after:absolute after:h-px after:bottom-0 after:bg-cu-red after:left-px text-3xl md:text-4xl lg:text-5xl lg:leading-[3.5rem] pb-5 after:w-10 text-cu-black-700 not-prose\">\n                        Willing to do Nothing: Addressing the Societal Resilience Gap in Estonia and Latvia \n                    <\/h1>\n                \n                                \n                                    \n\n<p>By Elizabeth Tobias, Carleton University\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n                            <\/header>\n\n                    <\/div>\n\n            <\/div>\n\n    <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"key-takeaways\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key Takeaways<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>About one in three residents of Estonia and Latvia say they would do nothing\u00a0in the event of\u00a0a military threat, with even lower likelihood to act among ethnic Russians.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Interest in\u00a0participating\u00a0through non-combat roles (e.g.,\u00a0financial contributions) is higher than in combat roles\u00a0but still does not reflect\u00a0a significant\u00a0portion\u00a0of the population\u00a0in either Latvia or Estonia.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>NATO (and Canada) should\u00a0address\u00a0the\u00a0societal resilience\u00a0gap among local\u00a0communities.\u00a0Targeted grants for trusted local organizations, coupled with strong monitoring and evaluation, can help build social cohesion and civic preparedness across Estonia and Latvia, particularly in regions with a significant ethnic Russian population.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"background\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Background<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Recent polling data from Estonia and Latvia suggest&nbsp;there is&nbsp;a significant gap in societal resilience&nbsp;among&nbsp;the&nbsp;residents&nbsp;of both countries. While Russia is overwhelmingly perceived as a security threat&nbsp;within these nations,&nbsp;an overall&nbsp;willingness to act&nbsp;in the event of&nbsp;a military threat is low. This gap is particularly pronounced along&nbsp;demographic&nbsp;lines, with lower willingness to act among&nbsp;ethnic Russians&nbsp;in Estonia and Latvia. As the Baltic&nbsp;states are<a href=\"https:\/\/smallwarsjournal.com\/2025\/08\/05\/could-putin-take-the-baltics\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">&nbsp;widely considered<\/a>&nbsp;likely targets&nbsp;for potential future Russian aggression, this deficit in resilience has direct implications for Canadian and NATO security commitments in the region.\u202f&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since&nbsp;their post-Soviet&nbsp;independence, Estonia and Latvia have invested heavily in defence preparedness through joining NATO, bolstering their cyber networks, and educating their youth on&nbsp;mis- and disinformation. After Russia\u2019s&nbsp;illegal&nbsp;annexation of Crimea in 2014, Canada joined its NATO&nbsp;Allies in strengthening defence structures in Eastern and Central Europe under&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.canada.ca\/en\/department-national-defence\/services\/operations\/military-operations\/current-operations\/operation-reassurance.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Operation REASSURANCE<\/a>,&nbsp;currently&nbsp;the Canadian Armed Forces\u2019&nbsp;(CAF)&nbsp;largest overseas mission. Recognizing the&nbsp;particular vulnerability&nbsp;of the Baltic states to Russian aggression, Canada took the initiative to lead the Multinational Battlegroup in Latvia in 2017.&nbsp;After Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Canada committed to scaling this presence into a full&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.canada.ca\/en\/department-national-defence\/news\/2025\/11\/canadian-led-nato-multinational-brigade-latvia-completes-exercise-resolute-warrior-25.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Multinational Brigade<\/a>.&nbsp;Following his election&nbsp;in&nbsp;Spring&nbsp;2025,&nbsp;Prime Minister Mark Carney emphasized that these operations&nbsp;work to&nbsp;reinforce NATO at a time of great global instability and change.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To meet NATO\u2019s Article 3&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/en\/what-we-do\/deterrence-and-defence\/resilience-civil-preparedness-and-article-3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">requirements<\/a>,&nbsp;Estonia and Latvia have adopted&nbsp;\u201cTotal Defence\u201d&nbsp;models, recognizing that societal resilience and&nbsp;civilian participation&nbsp;are just as crucial as military&nbsp;structures&nbsp;for overall defence of the country. Learning from the success of the Ukrainian Territorial Defence Forces in fighting the Russian military,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/journalonbalticsecurity.com\/journal\/JOBS\/article\/133\/read\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Estonia<\/a>&nbsp;is&nbsp;working to promote its own reservist force through public awareness campaigns, increased daily allowances&nbsp;for reservists, and crisis&nbsp;preparedness education.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mod.gov.lv\/en\/nozares-politika\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Latvia\u2019s comprehensive defence plan<\/a>&nbsp;similarly&nbsp;promotes civil protection while&nbsp;identifying&nbsp;\u201cpolitical trust\u201d&nbsp;and&nbsp;\u201cinter-ethnic cohesion\u201d&nbsp;as vital to national security.&nbsp;Both Baltic countries are also working to increase civil support for their law enforcement agencies, fire departments, and medical systems.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As highlighted in the Latvian defence plan, social cohesion&nbsp;and confidence in state institutions&nbsp;and partnerships&nbsp;are essential&nbsp;for&nbsp;building and&nbsp;maintaining&nbsp;civil engagement in total defence.\u202fThe&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/stratcomcoe.org\/about_us\/about-strategic-communications\/1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence (Stratcom COE)<\/a>&nbsp;in Riga engages in public diplomacy, information operations, and psychological operations&nbsp;to align national efforts with&nbsp;NATO\u2019s strategic&nbsp;objectives. The Latvian government has also partnered with the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lato.lv\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Latvian Transatlantic Organization (LATO)<\/a>&nbsp;\u2013 an NGO with the goal of informing the public about NATO and Latvia\u2019s participation in it.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Social cohesion between ethnic communities&nbsp;has been a focus of national and&nbsp;local NGOs, as Russian-speaking minorities&nbsp;remain&nbsp;less likely to trust NATO or volunteer for national defence than their neighbours.&nbsp;In the northeastern region of Estonia,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vitatiim.ee\/about\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">VitaTiim<\/a>&nbsp;works mostly with&nbsp;Russian speakers&nbsp;of all ages on projects&nbsp;developing critical thinking and media literacy.&nbsp;These projects&nbsp;promote&nbsp;active citizenship and social entrepreneurship through youth work and international exchanges.&nbsp;VitaTiim&nbsp;already has international partnerships, including with the European Solidarity Corps and&nbsp;the US Embassy in Estonia. In Latvia, the organization&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.neweasteurope.com\/about-us\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">New East<\/a>&nbsp;focuses on education, culture, media, and civic engagement in the Baltics and beyond,&nbsp;specifically striving to foster open dialogue&nbsp;and social inclusion for underrepresented ethnic minorities.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite these institutional frameworks and&nbsp;nonprofit&nbsp;initiatives, recent polling reveals&nbsp;a high likelihood amongst the public to do nothing to defend Estonia and Latvia from a military threat, as well as&nbsp;a persistent&nbsp;gap&nbsp;in how different&nbsp;ethnic&nbsp;communities perceive&nbsp;national security&nbsp;and threats&nbsp;to their country.&nbsp;To better understand these dynamics,&nbsp;the following data examines&nbsp;security&nbsp;perceptions&nbsp;across the region.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"survey-evidence-societal-resilience-gaps-in-estonia-and-latvia\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Survey Evidence: Societal Resilience Gaps in Estonia and Latvia<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Polling from Carleton University\u2019s Eastern European and Transatlantic Network (EETN) shows that,\u00a0as of Spring 2025, many people in Estonia and Latvia do not see themselves as active participants in defence during a crisis. Most significantly, about 30% of Estonians and Latvians say they are likely to do nothing\u00a0in the event of\u00a0a military threat.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"456\" src=\"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/44\/2026\/06\/image.png\" alt=\"Graph detailing how Latvian's and Estonians would respond in the event of the Baltics being invaded. \" class=\"wp-image-2579\" srcset=\"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/44\/2026\/06\/image.png 936w, https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/44\/2026\/06\/image-512x249.png 512w, https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/44\/2026\/06\/image-320x156.png 320w, https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/44\/2026\/06\/image-768x374.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Demographic and geographic\u00a0characteristics of\u00a0this vulnerability\u00a0show a stark division:\u00a0almost half\u00a0of ethnic Russians\u00a0(46%)\u00a0residing\u00a0in Latvia and Estonia\u00a0would\u00a0do nothing\u00a0if\u00a0their\u00a0respective countries face a military threat.\u00a0Four in 10\u00a0(43%)\u00a0polled\u00a0residents\u00a0of\u00a0Latgale, a region of Latvia directly on the border with Russia\u00a0comprised\u00a0of a\u00a0large Russian-speaking minority,\u00a0say they would not act.\u00a0Half of those polled\u00a0in Northeastern Estonia\u00a0(51%), another region sharing a border with Russia\u00a0and having a similar demographic composition as Latgale, are also likely to do nothing.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"930\" height=\"555\" src=\"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/44\/2026\/06\/image-1.png\" alt=\"Responses by ethnic Russians to the question from the previous graph.\" class=\"wp-image-2581\" srcset=\"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/44\/2026\/06\/image-1.png 930w, https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/44\/2026\/06\/image-1-512x306.png 512w, https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/44\/2026\/06\/image-1-320x191.png 320w, https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/44\/2026\/06\/image-1-768x458.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 930px) 100vw, 930px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Reported willingness to&nbsp;participate&nbsp;in national defence is low.&nbsp;When asked whether they would join the active-duty military in the event of a military threat, only about 20% of Estonians and Latvians say they are likely to do so, and only about 30% are likely to join the military reserves or territorial forces&nbsp;in response to the same threat.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While more people are willing to take up non-combat forms of national defence, still, even such likelihood is low.&nbsp;Estonians&nbsp;appear to be&nbsp;more likely to&nbsp;assist&nbsp;in this way than Latvians,&nbsp;approximately six in 10&nbsp;(59%)&nbsp;of Estonians are likely to volunteer to contribute with physical labour, versus&nbsp;44% in Latvia. About half&nbsp;(48%)&nbsp;of Estonians are likely to volunteer to contribute financially,&nbsp;compared to&nbsp;only 29% of Latvians.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ethnic Russians in both countries are even less likely to be active defenders&nbsp;in the event of&nbsp;a military threat. A staggering&nbsp;80%&nbsp;of&nbsp;ethnic Russians&nbsp;in Latvia and Estonia are&nbsp;unlikely to join the active-duty military, military reserves, or territorial forces. In Estonia, 41% of ethnic Russians are likely to volunteer to contribute with physical labour, but this number drops significantly in Latvia, with only 29% of ethnic Russians likely to do so. Finally, only about&nbsp;20%&nbsp;of&nbsp;ethnic Russians, in&nbsp;both Estonia and Latvia, are likely to volunteer to contribute financially.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"799\" height=\"723\" src=\"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/44\/2026\/06\/image-2.png\" alt=\"Data of support by group in Estonia and Latvia\" class=\"wp-image-2582\" srcset=\"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/44\/2026\/06\/image-2.png 799w, https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/44\/2026\/06\/image-2-512x463.png 512w, https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/44\/2026\/06\/image-2-320x290.png 320w, https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/44\/2026\/06\/image-2-768x695.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 799px) 100vw, 799px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>From a policy perspective, this polling data highlights\u00a0both\u00a0a\u00a0gap and an\u00a0opportunity. If a significant segment of the population is unlikely to\u00a0contribute to the active defence of their country, resilience-building efforts must expand beyond military\u00a0deployments. To foster the social cohesion necessary for resilience, trust\u00a0and cooperation between minority and majority communities must be bolstered. NATO and Canada can do this through collaboration with local community networks\u00a0\u2013\u00a0such as\u00a0VitaTiim\u00a0and New East\u00a0\u2013\u00a0that are already on the ground\u00a0in\u00a0the region.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"conclusion\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Conclusion<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Recent polling data from Estonia and Latvia suggests a region with a significant gap in societal resilience. While Russia is overwhelmingly perceived as a security threat, willingness to act\u00a0in the event of\u00a0a military threat is low. This gap is particularly pronounced along\u00a0demographic\u00a0lines, with lower willingness to act among\u00a0ethnic Russians. As\u00a0Estonia and Latvia\u00a0are<a href=\"https:\/\/smallwarsjournal.com\/2025\/08\/05\/could-putin-take-the-baltics\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u00a0widely considered<\/a>\u00a0likely targets\u00a0for potential future Russian aggression, this deficit in resilience has direct implications for Canadian and NATO security commitments in the region.\u202fBy supporting well-monitored projects with local organizations that build social cohesion and civic preparedness, Canada and NATO can help ensure Estonia and Latvia are more resilient and better prepared to withstand a military threat.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"policy-recommendations\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Policy Recommendations<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>1.&nbsp;NATO&nbsp;and Canada&nbsp;should create a dedicated societal resilience grant to support local NGOs&nbsp;<\/strong>such as&nbsp;VitaTiim&nbsp;and New East that advance social cohesion and civic preparedness. Supported projects should&nbsp;have&nbsp;bilingual&nbsp;messaging&nbsp;(in Russian and Estonian or Latvian) and may include&nbsp;media literacy and cyber safety training, community initiatives fostering dialogue across demographic lines,&nbsp;and&nbsp;projects that engage citizens as partners in international governance.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The grant should emphasize collaboration between local and international organizations, promoting a shared responsibility in local, national, and international governance.&nbsp;Priority should go to local initiatives in regions with large Russian-speaking populations.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2.&nbsp;Each&nbsp;NATO\/Canadian-supported project should be&nbsp;required&nbsp;to include a monitoring, evaluation, and feedback plan in alignment with&nbsp;NATO\u2019s&nbsp;<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jallc.nato.int\/application\/files\/4416\/0261\/6142\/A_Framework_for_the_Strategic_Planning_and_Evolution_of_Public_Diplomacy.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>strategic planning framework<\/strong><\/a><strong>.<\/strong>&nbsp;Thorough monitoring is necessary&nbsp;in order to&nbsp;accurately evaluate how effective projects are at bolstering societal resilience and civic preparedness.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>3.&nbsp;Canada and NATO should use existing NATO StratCom COE platforms to highlight successful partnerships in relatable ways to the Estonians and Latvians<\/strong>, including through multilingual media and public events.&nbsp;Positive views of NATO and the West expressed by individuals and organizations that already have credibility in their communities should be amplified to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/uscpublicdiplomacy.org\/sites\/uscpublicdiplomacy.org\/files\/From%20Crawling%20to%20Walking_Maronkova.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">strengthen civic preparedness<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A study conducted by the EETN over the past year from Estonia and Latvia suggest\u00a0there is\u00a0a significant gap in societal resilience\u00a0among the residents \u00a0of both countries.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":128,"featured_media":2584,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[218,146,84,153,171,145,1,37],"tags":[262,263,156,158,109,35,42,43,78],"class_list":["post-2578","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-baltics","category-defence-spending","category-european-security","category-latvia","category-mentorship","category-nato","category-news","category-policy-brief","tag-baltics","tag-estonia","tag-latvia","tag-mentorship","tag-nato","tag-policy-brief","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-war-in-ukraine"],"acf":{"cu_post_thumbnail":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2578","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/128"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2578"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2578\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2586,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2578\/revisions\/2586"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2584"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2578"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2578"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/eetn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2578"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}