{"id":100076,"date":"2026-01-22T09:33:34","date_gmt":"2026-01-22T14:33:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/?post_type=cu_story&#038;p=100076"},"modified":"2026-01-22T09:38:24","modified_gmt":"2026-01-22T14:38:24","slug":"trump-greenland-annexation-shakier-ground","status":"publish","type":"cu_story","link":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/story\/trump-greenland-annexation-shakier-ground\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump&#8217;s Annexation of Greenland Seemed Imminent. Now It&#8217;s on Much Shakier Ground."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"w-screen px-6 cu-section cu-section--white ml-offset-center md:px-8 lg:px-14\">\n    <div class=\"space-y-6 cu-max-w-child-max  md:space-y-10 cu-prose-first-last\">\n\n        \n                    \n                    \n            \n    <div class=\"cu-wideimage relative flex items-center justify-center mx-auto px-8 overflow-hidden md:px-16 rounded-xl not-prose  my-6 md:my-12 first:mt-0 bg-opacity-50 bg-cover bg-cu-black-50 pt-24 pb-32 md:pt-28 md:pb-44 lg:pt-36 lg:pb-60 xl:pt-48 xl:pb-72\" style=\"background-image: url(https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/162\/2026\/01\/istock-greenland-1920x1280-1-768x512.jpg); background-position: 50% 50%;\">\n\n                    <div class=\"absolute top-0 w-full h-screen\" style=\"background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0.600);\"><\/div>\n        \n        <div class=\"relative z-[2] max-w-4xl w-full flex flex-col items-center gap-2 cu-wideimage-image cu-zero-first-last\">\n            <header class=\"mx-auto mb-6 text-center text-white cu-pageheader cu-component-updated cu-pageheader--center md:mb-12\">\n\n                                    <h1 class=\"cu-prose-first-last font-semibold mb-2 text-3xl md:text-4xl lg:text-5xl lg:leading-[3.5rem] cu-pageheader--center text-center mx-auto after:left-px\">\n                        Trump&#8217;s Annexation of Greenland Seemed Imminent. Now It&#8217;s on Much Shakier Ground.\n                    <\/h1>\n                \n                            <\/header>\n        <\/div>\n\n                    <svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"absolute bottom-0 w-full z-[1]\" fill=\"none\" viewbox=\"0 0 1280 312\">\n                <path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M26.412 315.608c-.602-.268-6.655-2.412-13.524-4.769a1943.84 1943.84 0 0 1-14.682-5.144l-2.276-.858v-5.358c0-4.876.086-5.358.773-5.09 1.674.643 21.38 5.84 34.646 9.109 14.682 3.59 28.935 6.858 45.936 10.449l9.874 2.089H57.322c-16.4 0-30.31-.16-30.91-.428ZM460.019 315.233c42.974-10.074 75.602-19.88 132.443-39.867 76.16-26.791 152.063-57.709 222.385-90.663 16.7-7.823 21.336-10.074 44.262-21.273 85.004-41.688 134.719-64.193 195.291-88.413 66.55-26.577 145.2-53.584 194.27-66.765C1258.5 5.626 1281.34 0 1282.24 0c.17 0 .34 27.596.34 61.3v61.299l-2.23.375c-84.7 13.718-165.93 35.955-310.736 84.931-46.494 15.753-65.427 22.076-96.166 32.15-9.102 3-24.814 8.198-34.989 11.574-107.543 35.954-153.008 50.422-196.626 62.639l-6.74 1.876-89.126-.054c-78.135-.054-88.782-.161-85.948-.857ZM729.628 312.875c33.229-10.985 69.248-23.523 127.506-44.207 118.705-42.223 164.596-57.709 217.446-73.302 2.62-.75 8.29-2.465 12.67-3.751 56.19-16.772 126.94-33.597 184.17-43.671 5.07-.91 9.66-1.768 10.22-1.875l.94-.161v170.236l-281.28-.054H719.968l9.66-3.215ZM246.864 313.411c-65.041-2.251-143.047-12.11-208.432-26.256-18.375-3.965-41.73-9.538-42.202-10.074-.171-.214-.257-21.38-.214-47.046l.129-46.618 6.654 3.697c57.313 32.043 118.491 56.531 197.699 79.143 40.313 11.521 83.459 18.058 138.669 21.059 15.584.857 65.685.857 81.14 0 33.744-1.876 61.306-4.93 88.396-9.806 6.396-1.126 11.634-1.983 11.722-1.929.255.375-20.48 7.769-30.999 11.038-28.592 8.948-59.288 15.646-91.873 20.147-26.36 3.59-50.015 5.627-78.35 6.698-15.584.59-55.209.59-72.339-.053Z\"><\/path>\n                <path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M-3.066 295.067 32.06 304.1v9.033H-3.066v-18.066Z\"><\/path>\n            <\/svg>\n            <\/div>\n\n    \n\n    <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at headlines around the world, it seemed like United States President Donald Trump&#8217;s annexation of Greenland was imminent. Buoyed by the success of his <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/venezuela-attack-greenland-threats-and-gaza-assault-mark-the-collapse-of-international-legal-order-272690\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">military operation to oust Venezuelan President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro<\/a>, Trump ratcheted up his rhetoric and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/01\/17\/europe\/protesters-denmark-greenland-trump-intl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">threatened tariffs<\/a> on any nation that opposed him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Adding insult to injury, he openly mocked European leaders by posting their private messages and sharing an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/20\/world\/europe\/davos-trump-europe.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">AI-generated image<\/a> of himself raising the American flag over Greenland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But behind these headlines a different story has emerged that has likely forced Trump to back down on using military force against Greenland and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/cgezx40r7d7o\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">to drop threatened tariffs against Europe<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump&#8217;s military threats had <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipsos.com\/en-us\/americans-oppose-using-military-force-take-possession-greenland\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">toxic polling numbers<\/a> with the American public. His Republican allies openly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/news\/politics\/2026\/01\/15\/don-bacon-trump-greenland-impeachment\/88195826007\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">threatened to revolt<\/a>. European countries are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/denmark-to-boost-military-presence-in-greenland\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">sending reinforcements<\/a> to Greenland, hiking the costs of any potential invasion. And Europeans started to contemplate what <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/the-eu-magical-mystery-trade-weapon-other-options-donald-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">economic retaliation<\/a> might look like.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Far from being inevitable, Trump&#8217;s Greenland gambit is now on shaky ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"no-good-options\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">No good options<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump has three options to take control of Greenland: diplomacy, money and military force. The latest diplomatic talks collapsed as Greenland and Denmark&#8217;s foreign ministers left the White House in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/world\/white-house-meeting-denmark-greenland-9.7044695\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">&#8220;fundamental disagreement&#8221;<\/a> over the future of the territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Simply buying the territory is a non-starter. Greenlanders have already said the territory is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2026\/1\/8\/greenland-is-not-for-sale-lawmaker-says-amid-trumps-escalating-threats\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">not for sale<\/a>, and U.S. Congress is unwilling to foot the bill. That&#8217;s left military force, the worst possible option.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s difficult to convey in words just how stunningly unpopular this option is with Americans. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipsos.com\/en-us\/americans-oppose-using-military-force-take-possession-greenland\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">A recent Ipsos poll<\/a> found that just four per cent of Americans believe using military force to take Greenland is a good idea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To put that in perspective, here are some policies that are more popular:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Billionaires should pay less tax <a href=\"https:\/\/www.filesforprogress.org\/datasets\/2024\/9\/dfp_billionaire_minimum_tax_tabs.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">(five per cent)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Pardoning convicted drug trafficker and Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez <a href=\"https:\/\/today.yougov.com\/politics\/articles\/53702-majorities-americans-say-donald-trump-gives-too-many-pardons-want-to-limit-pardon-power-december-5-8-2025-economist-yougov-poll\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">(13 per cent)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Government book bans <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationhoodlab.org\/survey-results-americans-overwhelmingly-oppose-election-subversion-aggressive-book-bans-but-split-on-partisan-lines-over-voter-suppression-and-presidents-being-above-law\/#:%7E:text=Aggressive%20book%20bans%20are%20very,of%20fraud%20having%20taken%20place.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">(14 per cent)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Stopping the release of all the Jeffrey Epstein files <a href=\"https:\/\/d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net\/documents\/econTabReport_aY8mpiN.pdf#page=10\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">(seven per cent)<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If your official foreign policy is less popular than pardoning drug traffickers, then your foreign policy might be in trouble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sensing this unpopularity, Trump has already begun to walk back his military threats. Using his platform at Davos, he claimed <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/administration\/5697371-live-updates-trump-davos-greenland-minnesota\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">&#8220;I don&#8217;t have to use force. I don&#8217;t want to use force. I won&#8217;t use force.&#8221;<\/a> He also said he and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/01\/21\/trump-tariffs-nato-greenland-davos.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">&#8220;formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland.&#8221;<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s too early to tell whether Trump is being sincere. Not long after claiming to be the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/world\/trump-bombing-strikes-peace-president-9.7028340\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">&#8220;president of peace,&#8221;<\/a> he was invading Venezuela and bombing Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The broader point is that if diplomacy has failed, money is a non-starter, and now military action is ostensibly being taken off the table, then Trump has no good options.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"the-danger-of-defections\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">The danger of defections<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump&#8217;s political coalition, in fact, is increasingly fragile and in danger of defections. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/13\/us\/politics\/congress-house-republicans-majority.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The Republican House majority has shrunk to a razor-thin margin<\/a>, and Republicans are already signalling a loud break with Trump over Greenland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nebraska congressman Don Bacon recently told <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/news\/politics\/2026\/01\/15\/don-bacon-trump-greenland-impeachment\/88195826007\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>USA Today<\/em><\/a>: &#8220;There&#8217;s so many Republicans mad about this \u2026 If he went through with the threats, I think it would be the end of his presidency.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The situation in the Senate looks even worse. Multiple Republican senators have pledged to oppose any annexation, with Thom Tillis and Lisa Murkowski <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/01\/19\/g-s1-106427\/congress-bipartisan-denmark-greenland\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">visiting Copenhagen<\/a> to reassure the Danish government. With enough defections, U.S. congress could sharply curtail Trump&#8217;s plans and force a humiliating climb-down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There&#8217;s yet another danger of defection. Senior military officers can resign, retire or object to the legality of orders to attack America&#8217;s NATO allies. Just last year, Adm. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/world\/us-admiral-latin-america-command-holsey-retires-9.7014294\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Alvin Holsey<\/a>, the leader of U.S. Southern Command, abruptly retired less than year into what is typically a multi-year posting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Holsey&#8217;s departure <a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/world\/americas\/us-politics\/pete-hegseth-drug-boats-navy-admiral-b2877882.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">came amid reports that he was questioning the legality of U.S. boat strikes in the Caribbean<\/a>. Americans still have a <a href=\"https:\/\/news.gallup.com\/poll\/1597\/confidence-institutions.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">high level of confidence<\/a> in the military, so when senior officers suddenly leave, it can set off alarm bells.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"creating-a-tripwire\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">Creating a tripwire<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In recent days, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/denmark-to-boost-military-presence-in-greenland\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Denmark and its European allies have rushed to send military reinforcements to Greenland<\/a>. These forces, however, would have no hope of defeating a committed American invasion. So why are they there?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In strategic studies, we call this a <a href=\"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/fpa\/article\/19\/4\/orad017\/7229965?login=false\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">&#8220;tripwire force.&#8221;<\/a> The reasoning is that any attack on this force will create strong pressure at home for governments to respond. If Danes and Swedes \u2014 and other Europeans for that matter \u2014 saw their soldiers being captured or killed, it would force their governments to escalate the conflict and retaliate against the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Trump administration would like to seize Greenland, face no European forces and suffer no consequences. But the entire point of a tripwire force is to deny easy wins and to signal that any attack would be met with costly escalation. It creates a price to invading Greenland for an administration that rarely wants to pay for anything.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"the-b-word\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">The B-word<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Amid the Trump administration&#8217;s economic and sovereignty threats, people are forced to grapple with what comes next. European governments are already <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/donald-trump-europe-greenland-threat-military-defense-allies\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">quietly debating<\/a> retaliation, including diplomatic, military and economic responses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chief among these is the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/01\/18\/business\/europe-greenland-trump-tariffs-trade\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">European Union&#8217;s Anti-Coercion Instrument<\/a>, colloquially known as the &#8220;trade bazooka,&#8221; that could significantly curb America&#8217;s access to the EU market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But for ordinary Europeans, a different B-word will come to mind: boycott.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some Europeans began boycotting U.S. goods last year amid Trump&#8217;s trade threats \u2014 but never to the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/canada-is-leading-the-u-k-and-france-in-boycotting-american-goods-due-to-trumps-tariffs-263395\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">same level as Canadians<\/a>. That could quickly change if the U.S. engages in a stunning betrayal of its European allies. Fresh anger and outrage could see Europeans follow Canada&#8217;s lead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump repeatedly threatened Canada with annexation, and it triggered a transformation of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/politics\/canada-big-step-back-from-us-data-1.7637651\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Canadian consumer habits<\/a>. Canadians travel to the U.S. less, buy less American food and alcohol and look for more home-grown alternatives. Despite Canada&#8217;s small population, these boycotts have <a href=\"https:\/\/globalnews.ca\/news\/11300287\/washington-state-donald-trump-tariffs-chaos-impact\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">caused pain<\/a> for U.S. industries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now imagine a similar scenario with the EU. In 2024, the U.S. exported almost <a href=\"https:\/\/ustr.gov\/countries-regions\/europe-middle-east\/europe\/european-union\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">US$665 billion<\/a> in goods and services to the EU. It&#8217;s one of the largest export markets for the U.S., fuelling thousands of jobs and businesses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The real danger for American companies, however, is when consumer pressure moves upwards to governments and corporations. European governments and corporations who buy from American giants like Microsoft, Google and Boeing will start to see public pressure to buy European \u2014 or at least not American. America&#8217;s most valuable corporate brands risk being contaminated by the stigma of the U.S. government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"will-he-wont-he\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">Will he, won&#8217;t he?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>None of this will stop the Trump administration from trying. Trump&#8217;s own words \u2014 that there is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/player\/play\/video\/9.7053616\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">&#8220;no going back&#8221;<\/a> on his plans for Greenland \u2014 ensure he&#8217;s backed himself into corner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The more likely scenario seems to be starting to play out \u2014 Trump will try and then fail. His threats to annex Greenland will likely be remembered next to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2025\/06\/12\/trump-wanted-90-deals-in-90-days-instead-hes-finding-wins-where-he-can-00403638\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">&#8220;90 trade deals in 90 days&#8221;<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/Politics\/fact-checking-trumps-repeal-replace-obamacare-timeline\/story?id=46360908\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">&#8220;repeal and place&#8221;<\/a> in the pantheon of failed Trump policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The tragedy here is not simply a Trump administration with desires that consistently exceeds its grasp. It&#8217;s that the stain of betraying America&#8217;s closest allies will linger long after this administration is gone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2013<br><em><a href=\"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/polisci\/people\/eric-van-rythoven\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Eric Van Rythoven<\/a>\u00a0is an instructor of political science at Carleton University.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>This article is\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/trumps-annexation-of-greenland-seemed-imminent-now-its-on-much-shakier-ground-273787\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">republished<\/a>\u00a0from The Conversation under a Creative Commons licence. All photos provided by\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The Conversation<\/a>\u00a0from various from various sources.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Looking at headlines around the world, it seemed like United States President Donald Trump&#8217;s annexation of Greenland was imminent. Buoyed by the success of his military operation to oust Venezuelan President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, Trump ratcheted up his rhetoric and threatened tariffs on any nation that opposed him. Adding insult to injury, he openly mocked European [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":52,"featured_media":100077,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"cu_story_type":[1623],"cu_story_tag":[1921],"class_list":["post-100076","cu_story","type-cu_story","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","cu_story_type-expert-perspectives","cu_story_tag-faculty-of-public-and-global-affairs"],"acf":{"cu_post_thumbnail":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/cu_story\/100076","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/cu_story"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/cu_story"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/52"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/cu_story\/100076\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":100079,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/cu_story\/100076\/revisions\/100079"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/100077"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=100076"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"cu_story_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/cu_story_type?post=100076"},{"taxonomy":"cu_story_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/cu_story_tag?post=100076"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}