{"id":62895,"date":"2019-10-16T16:00:15","date_gmt":"2019-10-16T20:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newsroom.carleton.ca\/?post_type=cu_story&#038;p=62895"},"modified":"2025-08-19T09:37:26","modified_gmt":"2025-08-19T13:37:26","slug":"mozambique-politics-shifting","status":"publish","type":"cu_story","link":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/story\/mozambique-politics-shifting\/","title":{"rendered":"Campaign shows that political tectonic plates are shifting in Mozambique"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"w-screen px-6 cu-section cu-section--white ml-offset-center md:px-8 lg:px-14\">\n    <div class=\"space-y-6 cu-max-w-child-max  md:space-y-10 cu-prose-first-last\">\n\n        \n                    \n                    \n            \n    <div class=\"cu-wideimage relative flex items-center justify-center mx-auto px-8 overflow-hidden md:px-16 rounded-xl not-prose  my-6 md:my-12 first:mt-0 bg-opacity-50 bg-cover bg-cu-black-50 pt-24 pb-32 md:pt-28 md:pb-44 lg:pt-36 lg:pb-60 xl:pt-48 xl:pb-72\" style=\"background-image: url(https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/162\/conversation-campaign-politics-mozambique-1200w-1.jpg); background-position: 50% 50%;\">\n\n                    <div class=\"absolute top-0 w-full h-screen\" style=\"background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0.600);\"><\/div>\n        \n        <div class=\"relative z-[2] max-w-4xl w-full flex flex-col items-center gap-2 cu-wideimage-image cu-zero-first-last\">\n            <header class=\"mx-auto mb-6 text-center text-white cu-pageheader cu-component-updated cu-pageheader--center md:mb-12\">\n\n                                    <h1 class=\"cu-prose-first-last font-semibold mb-2 text-3xl md:text-4xl lg:text-5xl lg:leading-[3.5rem] cu-pageheader--center text-center mx-auto after:left-px\">\n                        Campaign shows that political tectonic plates are shifting in Mozambique\n                    <\/h1>\n                \n                            <\/header>\n        <\/div>\n\n                    <svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"absolute bottom-0 w-full z-[1]\" fill=\"none\" viewbox=\"0 0 1280 312\">\n                <path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M26.412 315.608c-.602-.268-6.655-2.412-13.524-4.769a1943.84 1943.84 0 0 1-14.682-5.144l-2.276-.858v-5.358c0-4.876.086-5.358.773-5.09 1.674.643 21.38 5.84 34.646 9.109 14.682 3.59 28.935 6.858 45.936 10.449l9.874 2.089H57.322c-16.4 0-30.31-.16-30.91-.428ZM460.019 315.233c42.974-10.074 75.602-19.88 132.443-39.867 76.16-26.791 152.063-57.709 222.385-90.663 16.7-7.823 21.336-10.074 44.262-21.273 85.004-41.688 134.719-64.193 195.291-88.413 66.55-26.577 145.2-53.584 194.27-66.765C1258.5 5.626 1281.34 0 1282.24 0c.17 0 .34 27.596.34 61.3v61.299l-2.23.375c-84.7 13.718-165.93 35.955-310.736 84.931-46.494 15.753-65.427 22.076-96.166 32.15-9.102 3-24.814 8.198-34.989 11.574-107.543 35.954-153.008 50.422-196.626 62.639l-6.74 1.876-89.126-.054c-78.135-.054-88.782-.161-85.948-.857ZM729.628 312.875c33.229-10.985 69.248-23.523 127.506-44.207 118.705-42.223 164.596-57.709 217.446-73.302 2.62-.75 8.29-2.465 12.67-3.751 56.19-16.772 126.94-33.597 184.17-43.671 5.07-.91 9.66-1.768 10.22-1.875l.94-.161v170.236l-281.28-.054H719.968l9.66-3.215ZM246.864 313.411c-65.041-2.251-143.047-12.11-208.432-26.256-18.375-3.965-41.73-9.538-42.202-10.074-.171-.214-.257-21.38-.214-47.046l.129-46.618 6.654 3.697c57.313 32.043 118.491 56.531 197.699 79.143 40.313 11.521 83.459 18.058 138.669 21.059 15.584.857 65.685.857 81.14 0 33.744-1.876 61.306-4.93 88.396-9.806 6.396-1.126 11.634-1.983 11.722-1.929.255.375-20.48 7.769-30.999 11.038-28.592 8.948-59.288 15.646-91.873 20.147-26.36 3.59-50.015 5.627-78.35 6.698-15.584.59-55.209.59-72.339-.053Z\"><\/path>\n                <path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M-3.066 295.067 32.06 304.1v9.033H-3.066v-18.066Z\"><\/path>\n            <\/svg>\n            <\/div>\n\n    \n\n    <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n<p>Having ruled Mozambique since 1975, the country\u2019s governing party, Frelimo, feels backed into a corner. It behaves as though it must fight any challenge to its hegemony by whatever means necessary. This includes aggression and violence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hence the sombre state of human rights that has formed in the past five years. Mozambique has witnessed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amnesty.org\/en\/documents\/afr41\/1019\/2019\/en\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">intimidation of civil society, arbitrary arrests and detentions<\/a>. Security forces have used excessive force and there have been incidents of torture and extrajudicial killing. Freedom of expression, peaceful assembly and association has been suppressed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 44 days of the election campaign, 44 people were killed \u2013 one person\u2019s death for every day of campaigning. In addition 271 were injured, about 59 were arrested and <a href=\"https:\/\/zitamar.com\/mozambique-political-process-bulletin-73-peaceful-end-no-observer-credentials-party-funding\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">property was destroyed<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since the end of the civil war in 1992, Mozambique has held five general elections. Frelimo has won them all, with Renamo in second place and since 2009 the Mozambique Democratic Movement also in the fray.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The background of rights abuse has cast its shadow into the current electoral cycle. To mention some salient cases:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><br><p>On 7 October, members of the special operation of the riot police <a href=\"http:\/\/opais.sapo.mz\/prm-confirma-que-suspeitos-do-assassinato-de-matavel-sao-agentes-da-lei-e-ordem\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">publicly executed<\/a> Anastacio Matavele, an election observer in Xai-Xai, 200km north of the capital, Maputo.<\/p><br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><br><p>On 11 October, Augusto Pelembe, the Mozambique Democratic Movement candidate for governor in Maputo province, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/pt-002\/candidato-do-mdm-escapa-ileso-a-disparos-em-maputo\/a-50789735\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">escaped an assassination attempt<\/a> in broad daylight in Malwana, 50km north of Maputo.<\/p><br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><br><p>On 16 September, unidentified men <a href=\"https:\/\/cipeleicoes.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/Casa-da-m%C3%A3e-de-cabe%C3%A7a-de-lista-da-Renamo-incendiada-por-desconhecidos-em-Quelimane.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">petrol-bombed <\/a> Manuel de Araujo\u2019s mother\u2019s house. Araujo is Renamo\u2019s candidate for governor in Zambezia province.<\/p><br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><br><p>On 6 September, three unidentified Frelimo militants <a href=\"https:\/\/clubofmozambique.com\/news\/mozambique-teacher-and-wife-savagely-beaten-at-their-home-in-derre-zambezia-report-141339\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">assaulted<\/a> a primary school teacher and Renamo member, Aristides da Concei\u00e7\u00e3o, and his wife Raina Le\u00e3o in Zambezia.<\/p><br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition, voters, civil society and opposition parties in various provinces <a href=\"https:\/\/clubofmozambique.com\/news\/mozambique-elections-frelimo-accused-of-collecting-voter-cards-across-the-country-cip-142779\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">accused<\/a> Frelimo members of collecting voter registration cards. This created confusion among uninformed voters. According to the law, they were allowed to vote if they carried other identification documents. Many voters didn\u2019t know this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>During the campaign, partisans of all political stripes were responsible for the violence. But Frelimo supporters were far more aggressive and violent. Nevertheless, it would be a mistake to interpret their war-like posture as a sign of strength. On the contrary, their deadly violence signals their weakness and betrays their vulnerability and desperation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Underground, the political tectonic plates are shifting, while above ground the political fortunes are changing. The centre cannot hold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"a-change-in-power-dynamics\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">A change in power dynamics<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Frelimo\u2019s tendency to direct violence towards its political opponents is a symptom of underlying structural transformations which the political sociologist Norbert Elias has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/40864499?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">described <\/a> as<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"not-prose cu-quote cu-component-spacing\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>diminishing contrasts and increasing varieties.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Elias argues that when unequal political groups become less unequal, the formerly powerful groups tend to become more aggressive and violent toward the formerly weaker groups. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The most recognisable feature of this in Mozambique is the pressure towards decentralisation of political power which began with the election of city mayors. From now on, provincial governors will be elected by the people rather than being appointed by the winning party. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On top of this, the incumbent is facing more politically conscious voters. They are better educated, informed, mobilised, organised, and demanding. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"electoral-rigging\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Electoral rigging<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A popular slogan within the ranks of Frelimo is: <em>\u201cA vit\u00f3ria prepara-se\u201d<\/em>, \u2013 \u201cIn order to win, one must prepare the victory.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Frelimo began to \u201cprepare the victory\u201d right at the beginning of the electoral process, the voter registration stage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Gaza province 286,000 extra voters were registered, giving Frelimo and president Filipe Nyusi a <a href=\"https:\/\/issafrica.org\/iss-today\/mozambiques-electoral-commission-should-do-the-right-thing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">6% bonus in the expected total vote<\/a>. While the 2017 population census showed that Gaza had 830,000 people of voting age, the electoral secretariat claimed there were 1.116 million registered voters in this province. This <a href=\"https:\/\/issafrica.org\/iss-today\/mozambiques-electoral-commission-should-do-the-right-thing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">implied<\/a> that the 2017 national census had missed 286,000 people aged 18 and above in the province. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This was so out of bounds that the National Statistics Agency was forced to defend the census. It rejected and denounced the electoral administration\u2019s numbers. It pointed out that according to \u201cscientific methods\u201d, Gaza\u2019s voting-age population is projected to reach the electoral administration\u2019s numbers in 20 years. The statistics agency\u2019s director was immediately sacked, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/pt-002\/mo%C3%A7ambique-titular-do-ine-demite-se-ap%C3%B3s-recenseamento-pol%C3%A9mico-em-gaza\/a-50153003\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">though an official statement<\/a> said that he had \u201cresigned due to political pressure\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The electoral administration also dispatched extra voter registration brigades in Gaza and Maputo. In these provinces the numbers appeared inflated. They are also the regions in which Frelimo has won all past general elections with wide margins. Curiously, the electoral administration failed to provide additional voter registration brigades in Nampula and Zambezia. These provinces have the largest and second-largest voting-age populations. They are also where Renamo and the Mozambique Democratic Movement enjoy more popular support than Frelimo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The opposition and civil society reorganisations have pointed with disapproval to these \u201cvictory preparation\u201d activities. They have also questioned the possibility of a free and fair election. So far, polling is peaceful, but vote counting may not be. Mozambicans are bracing themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Sipho Mantula also contributed to this article. He is a researcher at the Institute for Dispute Resolution in Africa, University of South Africa. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not represent those of the institutions to which they are affiliated.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/carleton-university-900\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Carleton University is a member of this unique digital journalism platform that launched in June 2017 to boost visibility of Canada\u2019s academic faculty and researchers. Interested in writing a piece? Please contact <a href=\"mailto:steven.reid3@carleton.ca\">Steven Reid<\/a> or <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/become-an-author\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">sign up to become an author<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>All photos provided by The Conversation from various sources.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<br>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/newsroom.carleton.ca\/\">Carleton Newsroom<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/125270\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Having ruled Mozambique since 1975, the country\u2019s governing party, Frelimo, feels backed into a corner. It behaves as though it must fight any challenge to its hegemony by whatever means necessary. This includes aggression and violence. Hence the sombre state of human rights that has formed in the past five years. Mozambique has witnessed intimidation [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":410,"featured_media":62896,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"cu_story_type":[1623],"cu_story_tag":[],"class_list":["post-62895","cu_story","type-cu_story","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","cu_story_type-expert-perspectives"],"acf":{"cu_post_thumbnail":false},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/cu_story\/62895","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/cu_story"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/cu_story"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/410"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/cu_story\/62895\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":62897,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/cu_story\/62895\/revisions\/62897"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62896"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62895"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"cu_story_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/cu_story_type?post=62895"},{"taxonomy":"cu_story_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/cu_story_tag?post=62895"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}