{"id":65158,"date":"2020-03-26T12:21:55","date_gmt":"2020-03-26T16:21:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newsroom.carleton.ca\/?post_type=cu_story&p=65158"},"modified":"2025-08-19T09:37:23","modified_gmt":"2025-08-19T13:37:23","slug":"new-simulations-predict-future-pandemics","status":"publish","type":"cu_story","link":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/news\/story\/new-simulations-predict-future-pandemics\/","title":{"rendered":"Coronavirus: How new simulations can predict the spread of future pandemics"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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\n Coronavirus: How new simulations can predict the spread of future pandemics\n <\/h1>\n \n <\/header>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <\/path>\n <\/path>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n \n\n <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n

Pandemics are not new. We have historical records on the effects of pandemics dating from as early as 3000 BC<\/a>. Between 1348 and 1350, the Black Death killed a quarter of the population in Europe<\/a>. A century later, European diseases killed large numbers of Indigenous people in what is now known as Canada<\/a> and the rest of the Americas<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 1918 Spanish flu<\/a> caused around 50 million deaths worldwide. Since then, we have suffered deadly outbreaks of smallpox<\/a>, pertussis<\/a>, Ebola<\/a>, SARS<\/a>, Avian flu<\/a> and many others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although natural observations and social experiments allow us to study past diseases and their patterns, this is not enough to prevent future crises. To efficiently predict the spread of a disease, there is a clear and urgent need for new tools and methodologies that can easily assimilate possible factors, such as weather patterns and human behaviour. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we could provide clear predictions on which social behaviours would affect the spread of a certain disease, policy-makers would be in a better position<\/a> to develop improved pandemic response plans. Researchers are building new prediction models<\/a> and running simulations to study how to deal with the current outbreak<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our research group has defined new methods and distributed simulation techniques to study different aspects of the spread of disease<\/a>. Our research also studied diffusion processes based on social interactions<\/a>, like those happening during epidemics. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

New viral outbreaks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

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We are currently dealing with a pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, a new coronavirus<\/a>. The latest figures for confirmed cases and deaths<\/a> point out that we were not prepared to deal with contagion rate and severity of this virus. Decision makers cannot wait until real data from new diseases are available to start planning. Recent research confirms that these outbreaks will keep on happening<\/a>, so what can we do to be prepared for the next (inevitable) outbreak?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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