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SUMMARY:How phase-outs and other decline policies accelerate decarbonization under the Paris Agreement: Gregory Trencher
DESCRIPTION:There is increasing recognition that ‘decline policies’, such as phase-outs, bans, pollution pricing and substitution programs, are critical for accelerating decarbonization under the Paris Agreement. By directly reducing or eliminating emissions-intensive technologies, fuels, materials and practices, decline policies fill a critical void in climate governance, which continues to focus on the creation and diffusion of green technologies. This bias to novelty and build up has resulted in the addition of new, clean technologies without ‘subtracting’ the incumbent ones at the root of the climate crisis. In this talk, I present the results of an analysis of approximately 1,000 decline policies identified in the climate policy portfolios of Annex I Parties under the Paris Agreement, collaboratively implemented with researchers at Carleton University, the University of St. Gallen and the University of Bern. Firstly, I compare the decarbonization potential of decline policies against other climate policies. Here I find that the expected mitigation impact of decline policies is considerably higher than other policy types. Next, I conceptualize and evaluate the policy design features that influence decarbonization impact. This analysis reveals that a decline policy’s ‘intensity’ – achieved by its obligatory force, decline speed and coverage of targeted systems – is robustly associated with greater mitigation potential. This suggests that policy design, rather than the choice of the decline instrument per se (e.g. an economic vs regulatory measure), can be a powerful mitigation amplifier. Overall, the results of this study underscore the critical role that stringently designed decline policies can play in accelerating decarbonization under the Paris Agreement.



About the speaker: Gregory Trencher is an associate professor at the Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies at Kyoto University in Japan. He obtained his Ph.D. from the University of Tokyo in 2014 and held previous posts at Clark University in the USA and Tohoku University in Japan. His research focuses on decarbonization and energy policy and the governance of energy and sustainability transitions. Current projects are investigating topics such as fossil-fuel phase-out policies, company decarbonization behaviour, voluntary carbon markets, next-generation mobility and smart cities. He serves on the editorial board for Energy Research & Social Science and as an editor for Frontiers in Sustainable Cities. His research has been published in journals such as Nature, Nature Communications, One Earth, Environmental Research Letters, PLOS One, Climatic Change and Technological Forecasting and Social Change. His research and opinion have featured in media outlets such as The Guardian, New York Times, Le Monde, Nikkei Asia, Channel NewsAsia (CNA), ABC Australia and Carbon Brief.
LOCATION:3201 Richcraft Hall, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Dr, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6
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