Karla Emeno

Associate Professor, Ontario Tech University

Ph.D. (Carleton University)

Ph.D. Research: Space-Time Clustering and Prospective Hot-Spotting of Canadian Crime

: Previous research has consistently shown that prior crime victimization is a significant predictor of future victimization (i.e., repeat victimization is common). More recently, research has also shown that near-repeat victimization is common, whereby targets located in close proximity to previously victimized dwellings/people/vehicles (depending on the crime) are at an increased risk of also being victimized. However, this elevated risk is only temporary and appears to subside over time. This space-time clustering has been found across various crimes such as burglary (Johnson & Bowers, 2004), theft from motor vehicles (Summers, Johnson & Pease, 2007), and gun crimes (Ratcliffe & Rengert, 2008). Cross-cultural research suggests that this finding also exists across jurisdictions (Johnson et al., 2007). However, the precise spatial-temporal patterning of crimes (and thus, the prospective risk levels) is location specific. Canadian crimes have never been included in any of the published research examining near-repeat victimization. The current study intends to fill this gap. The study has two general objectives. First, the research will examine how crime clusters together in space and time across various Canadian cities and crime types to determine the extent to which near-repeat victimization occurs. Second, the research will use these results to generate prospective risk surfaces (i.e., maps indicating levels of risk for a particular jurisdiction/crime type) and to examine the degree to which these surfaces are accurate (i.e., that a dwelling/person/vehicle in a high risk zone was actually victimized).