Abstract:
Climate change is increasingly affecting the condition and lifespan of roads across Canada through rising temperatures, heavier rainfall, and more frequent extreme weather events. These factors, combined with heavier traffic and overloaded trucks, accelerate road deterioration, leading to more frequent maintenance and rehabilitation needs and significantly higher costs. In the Niagara Region of Ontario, the number of days exceeding 30°C is projected to rise from 7 days historically to 31 days by the 2050s and 45 days by the 2080s. This warming trend directly threatens pavement integrity and service life.
In the preliminary phase of a project in Niagara Region, the impact of future climate conditions on road network performance was examined. Local traffic and pavement condition data were collected from 97 road sections between 2016 and 2023, and a Recursive Ridge Regression model was developed to forecast pavement roughness progression under two climate scenarios, SSP2-4.5 (medium emissions) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions). Maximum pavement temperature was identified as the dominant driver of long-term deterioration, primarily through asphalt rutting. By 2050, road conditions under the high-emission scenario are projected to be approximately 2.44% worse on average than under the medium-emission scenario, with the gap widening in later decades. As a result, current maintenance schedules and budgets may no longer be sufficient to keep roads in good condition under higher emission climate scenarios.
Therefore, incorporating climatic projections into pavement management systems and adjusting maintenance strategies accordingly is essential. This approach can help municipalities like Niagara Region make smarter, longer-term investments in road infrastructure, with future work expanding the methodology to include additional climate stressors, surface distress types, and treatment scenarios across the broader road network.
Contributors: Barzegaran J, Dezfoulian R S, Hossain K.