JANUARY 2025
January 1
Slovakia Will Not Risk Gas Shortage
The Slovakian Ministry of the Economy released a statement that it will not risk potential gas shortages as the gas transit deal between Russia and Ukraine expires. Slovakia, however, will have to pay an additional $184 million in fees for alternate routes to import gas from Western sources.
Kyiv Believes the USA Will Stand with Ukraine
President Zelesnky released an address to his nation where he stated that nobody would provide peace to his country as a gift as the Russian invasion approaches the 3-year mark. Additionally, the Ukrainian president added that he believes the USA will continue to stand with Ukraine as it fights to defend itself from Russian aggression.
January 2
Russian Gas Flows Through Ukraine End
Ukrainian President Zelensky commented on the expired gas transit deals between Russia and Ukraine as “one of Moscow’s biggest defeats” and the nation’s Energy Minister, Herman Halushchenko, called it a “historical event” taken “in the interest of national security.” Polish Foreign Minister, Radoslaw Sikorski said the expiration marked “a new victory after NATO enlargement to Finland and Sweden.”
Russia and China to Develop AI
Russian President Putin has ordered his country and the nation’s largest bank, Sberbank, to develop cooperation with China in the field of artificial intelligence. This announcement comes three weeks after Russia’s expressed commitment to work with member nations of BRICS to develop AI.
Slovakia Threatening Ukraine with Electricity and Refugee Support
Slovakia’s pro-Russian Prime Minister, Robert Fico has threatened to stop the supply of electricity from his nation to Ukraine and reduce aid to Ukrainian refugees as Russian gas transfers to Slovakia expired.
January 3
Ukraine Says Trump Could Be Decisive
President Zelensky has said that Donald Trump could be decisive in influencing the outcome of the war with Russia. In an interview, Zelensky said, “He can be decisive in this war. He is capable of stopping Putin or, to put it more fairly, help us stop Putin.”
Gas Supply in Europe
For the most part, gas supplies in Europe have remained stable following the expiration of the Ukrainian-Russian transit deal. The breakaway region of Transnistria in Moldova has been heavily impacted as the region’s first deputy prime minister, Sergei Obolonik, said that all industrial processes except food production have been closed in the region.
Baltic Energy Integration Unaffected
The Lithuanian government said that the recent failure of the Estlink 2 undersea cable, which has been blamed on a Russian vessel, does not affect the planned synchronisation of the Baltic states’ electricity grid with Western Europe.
January 4
Russian Gains and Losses in Donetsk
Russian military advancements in Donetsk for the year 2024, which totals approximately 4,168 square kilometres, less than 1% of Ukrainian territory, have come at the cu_event_cost of 430,000 soldiers.
Finland Refuses to Release Suspected Oil Tanker
A Finnish court has refused to release an oil tanker suspected of damaging an undersea power line and four telecommunications cables in the Baltic Sea. The Eagle S Tanker was carrying Russian oil when the cable between Finland and Estonia was damaged.
Russian Oil Tankers Leaking Oil Into the Black Sea
Two ageing Russian oil tankers affected by a severe storm last month have been leaking substantial amounts of oil into the Black Sea. Oil has now been detected off the coast of Sevastopol, Crimea, despite intense Russian efforts to contain the disaster.
Nothing of Interest Between Russia and Trump
Vasily Nebenzya, the Russian envoy to the United Nations told state news channel Rossiya-1 that there was “nothing of interest” in proposals of incoming US President Donald Trump to end the war between Ukraine and Russia.
January 5
Kyiv Mounts New Offensive in Kursk Oblast
Ukraine announced that it has launched a new offensive in the Kursk region of Russia which it has occupied parts of since Kyiv’s initial incursion in August. Russia has been intensifying efforts to retake the Ukrainian-occupied regions with high losses of troops and equipment.
More than 50,000 Foreign Parts Found in Russian Missiles and Drones
Ukraine has reported that the Russian drones and missiles that struck Ukraine in the first week of 2025 contain over 50,000 foreign parts. Zelensky commented: “The sanctions pressure on supply chains for foreign components remains insufficient.” The president urged for stronger support for Ukraine’s air defence and long-range capabilities and stronger sanctions against Russia from allies.
January 6
New American Ukraine Envoy Postpones Kyiv Trip
The retired Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg, who will serve as the new envoy to Ukraine for the Trump administration has postponed a trip to Kyiv and other European capitals to discuss the war until after Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20.
Moldova Summons Russian Diplomat
As Russian gas transports stopped to Moldova, the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria is on the brink of losing all electricity as they refuse to accept Western gas and energy. Moldova has summoned a Russian diplomat over the humanitarian situation which they believe Moscow is responsible for.
Macron Tells Ukraine to Be “Realistic”
French President Emmanuel Macron has called for Ukraine to have “realistic” expectations regarding territory as Russia’s war against the nation approaches the third year which he “sees no quick and easy solution” to ending.
January 8
Anchor from Baltic Sea Dragging Recovered
The Swedish navy reported that it assisted Finland in recovering an anchor suspected of being dragged by the Eagle S vessel in the Baltic Sea which severed telecommunication and energy cables between Finland and Estonia.
EU Accuses Russia of Waging Hybrid Warfare
Kaja Kallas, the foreign policy chief of the European Union has accused Russia of waging a “hybrid war” against Moldova, utilizing the supply of natural gas as a “weapon” against the nation after the contract agreeing to the transfer of Russian gas through Ukraine expired on December 31. The pro-Russian separatist region of Transnistria has been without gas since January 1.
January 9
The USA Ready to Provide Ukraine With Weapons
Washington is prepared to provide Kyiv with approximately $500 million worth of weapons from existing stockpiles in a move being made by the Biden administration ahead of Trump’s inauguration.
Ukraine and Moldova Talk Over Coal Deal
The Presidents of Ukraine and Moldova have met to discuss the potential utilisation of Ukrainian coal to mitigate the energy crisis in Moldova and the breakaway region of Transnistria following the termination of Russian gas through Ukraine on January 1.
Finnish Foreign Minister Advocates for Ukraine NATO Membership
Elina Valtonen, the Foreign Minister of Finland has stated that Ukrainian membership in NATO is the only “credible” security guarantee for the country against any future Russian aggression. This mirrors American Secretary of State, Antony Blinken’s comments about any potential end to the war needing “necessary deterrence.”
January 10
International Coalition to Send Drones to Ukraine
An international coalition headed by Latvia and the United Kingdom to procure unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for Ukraine will be delivering 30,000 drones to Ukraine.
German Chancellor Opposes NATO 5% of GDP on Defense Spending
Olaf Schulz, the German Chancellor spoke out and rejected Donald Trump’s calls for NATO members to increase their defence spending to 5% of the nation’s GDP. Schulz cited current NATO guidelines which call for 2% of GDP to be allocated towards defence.
EU Warns Against Travel Over Russian Airspace
The EU Aviation Safety Agency (EUASA) warned against non-European carriers from flying in western Russian airspace due to the potential risk of being unintentionally targeted by air defence systems.
January 11
United States and United Kingdom Impose More Sanctions
The governments of the United States of America and the United Kingdom have imposed more sanctions against the Russian energy sector to restrict Moscow’s ability to wage war in Ukraine. Sanctions were also applied to two Russian maritime insurance providers: Ingosstrakh and Alfastrakhonavie.
German Government at Odds
The German Chancellor Olaf Schulz has suspended a transfer of military aid worth $3.1 billion to Ukraine which was proposed and supported by Foreign Minister Baerbock and Defence Minister Pistorious. Schulz thinks the aid is unnecessary while Baerbock and Pistorious view it as essential.
Ukraine Receives $3.1 Billion from the European Commission
Ukraine received $3.1 billion from the European Commission as part of a major aid package pledged by the Group of Seven (G7) leading economies. The G7 and the European Union aim to provide Ukraine with a loan of $50 billion, secured by interest income on Russian state assets frozen in the West.
January 13
Sweden Deploying Warships and Surveillance Aircraft to the Baltic Sea
Sweden has announced that it will deploy three warships and an ASC 890 surveillance aircraft to the Baltic Sea as a part of a NATO initiative. Sweden’s response comes from allegations that vessels of Russia’s shadow fleet have been responsible for damaging undersea power and telecommunications cables.
Serbia and Switzerland Offer to Host Talks Between Putin and Trump
Serbian President, Aleksandr Vucic, and the Foreign Ministry of Switzerland have both offered to host a meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
January 14
Zelensky and Macron Discuss the Idea of Western Contingents
Zelensky and Macron reportedly spoke in France about possibly deploying Western contingents in Ukraine. Zelensky’s comments make it unclear whether they were discussing combat troops or peacekeepers.
NATO Chief Says Ukraine is Not in a Strong Position
Mark Rutte, the Secretary General of NATO said that Ukraine is not currently in a strong enough position for peace talks with Russia. Rutte told the European Commission on Foreign Affairs “At this moment, clearly Ukraine is not there, because they cannot at this moment negotiate from a position of strength.”
Germany Will Not Sacrifice Domestic Budget for Ukraine
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that he will oppose any increases in arms deliveries to Ukraine if it would require cuts elsewhere in Germany’s budget.
January 16
Poland Suspects Russia Planning Acts of Terrorism
The Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has revealed at a news conference he has information leading him to believe that Russia is planning acts of terrorism against Poland and other countries.
Trump Advisers Speak on Peace Situation
Advisers to the incoming American President Donald Trump have admitted that resolving the war in Ukraine will take months if not longer. Additionally, the advisers have indicated support for removing potential Ukrainian NATO membership and for freezing the conflict with European troops patrolling a demilitarized zone.
German Chancellor Says Money isn’t There
Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor of Germany has declared Germany can only fund an additional $31 billion in arms deliveries to Ukraine through separate borrowing because if not, the money is reportedly “not there.”
NATO Calls for Wartime Mindset
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has called for member nations of the organisation to shift towards a “wartime mindset” adding “To prevent war we need to prepare for it.”
January 17
Russian Military Reforms are a Threat
Finland’s chief of military intelligence, Pekka Turunen, claimed that planned Russian military reforms will increase Mscow’s troop capacity by 30% which he described as a threat to NATO that should be met with vigilance.
United Kingdom and Ukraine Sign Historic Agreement
The United Kingdom and Ukraine governments signed a 100-year agreement offering security guarantees to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire. This deal which sees Ukraine as a future NATO ally covers multiple areas including defense, trade, and energy.
January 18
Russia and Iran Increase Ties Further
Russia and Iran have agreed to develop further military and intelligence ties in a new comprehensive strategic partnership treaty. Within the agreement, Iran stopped short of pledging full military allegiance but agreed to cooperate to work together against common military threats.
Sanctions Against Russian Ghost Fleet
America has placed sanctions against the construction of six oil tankers at the Zvezda shipyard, the first time sanctions have been applied against Russia’s ghost fleet which Moscow has been using to sell oil and natural gas while avoiding sanctions.
January 19
550 Swedish Soldiers Arrive in Latvia
Approximately 550 Swedish soldiers have arrived in Latvia as a part of a Canadian-led multinational brigade along NATO’s Eastern flank.
German Defense Minister Open to Sending German Troops to Ukraine
Boris Pistorius, the German Minister of Defense said in an interview that he is open to sending German soldiers to Ukraine to secure a demilitarised zone in the event of a Ukrainian-Russian ceasefire.
January 20
Zelensky and Putin Congratulate Trump
Both the presidents of Russia and Ukraine congratulated the inauguration of the new President of the United States of America, Donald Trump. Moscow has said they are interested in talking with Ukraine under the administration of the Trump regime and Kyiv has said that Trump’s inauguration is an opportunity for peace.
January 21
Captured North Korean Soldier Speaks
A North Korean soldier who was taken prisoner in Kursk told interrogators that North Korean forces are taking major casualties in the fighting. Moscow has not admitted to utilising North Korean soldiers but during the interrogation, the POW gave a detailed account of his arrival in Kursk, training, and assigned duties.
Russian Oil Shipments in the Baltic Sea Dropping
The Finnish Border Guard has released a report which finds that Russian oil shipments via the Baltic Sea have declined by 10% in the last four months due to European Union sanctions against Russian export of oil and gas.
January 22
Trump Says He Has Plans to Meet With Putin
The new American president, Donald Trump has said that he is willing to meet with Vladimir Putin to negotiate a ceasefire, saying that the Russian president is “destroying Russia” and expressing concern over the nation’s economy. Trump also warned of further sanctions against Moscow and sending additional weapons to Ukraine if a ceasefire would not be negotiated but added that the EU should do more to support Kyiv.
China and Russia Talk About Peace
Chinese President Xi Jinping held a video call with Vladimir Putin where the two discussed issues surrounding the Middle East, the Korean peninsula, Syria, and Taiwan. The pair discussed the outlook of a potential peace deal to end the war in Ukraine.
Zelensky Addresses World Economic Forum
The Ukrainian president spoke at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, addressing European leaders that the continent must establish itself as a strong global leader, willing to guarantee peace and security. Zelesnky also added in his address that a minimum of 200,000 European peacekeepers would be needed in Ukraine as a part of a possible settlement to end the war with Russia.
January 23
Approval of German Military Support to Ukraine
German news agencies have reported that $8.48 billion of the total $13.8 billion worth of arms and military equipment approved for export to Ukraine has been approved by Berlin.
Trump Gives Ultimatum to Russia
President Trump issued an ultimatum to Putin to end the war immediately or face tariffs and sanctions on “anything sold by Russia to the United States.” Trump extended this threat to allies of Russia and supporters of Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
Russia Responds to Trumps Threat
Dmitry Polyanskiy, Russia’s deputy UN Ambassador responded to Trump’s threats by saying Moscow will need to see what Trump means as a “deal” and added that although Trump is not responsible for American Russophobia, he possesses the power to put an end to it.
Rebuilding Ukraine
Andrii Sybhia, the foreign minister of Ukraine said that his nation has sustained an estimated $626 billion in damage during the war. Rebuilding Ukraine will prove to be “the project of the century” and an opportunity for the economy of the European Union.
Kaja Kallas Warns the European Union of Russian Threat
Kaja Kallas, the foreign commissioner designate of the EU warned that Russia “could test the EU’s readiness to defend itself in three to five years” urging Europeans “to wake up.”
Russia Gathering Information on United Kingdom Underwater Infrastructure
John Healy, the Secretary of Defense for the United Kingdom said that the Royal Navy monitored a Russian spy ship gathering intelligence and mapping critical underwater infrastructure around the United Kingdom.
January 24
Russia Can Continue War
Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo told a panel in Davos, Switzerland that Russia can afford to sustain its war against Ukraine for at least another year. This necessitates the need for sanctions to target Russian oil, gas, energy, and fertilisers.
Mark Rutte Speaks on Ukraine NATO Ascension
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that Ukraine will one day join NATO when there is sustainable peace. Affirming that it is essential that Russia does not win its war against Ukraine as defeat would undermine NATO’s position as the world’s biggest military alliance.
Rutte Calls on USA to OCntinue Support to Ukraine
Mark Rutte also called for America to continue sending weapons to Ukraine, assuring Washington that the bill would be paid for by Europe. Rutte’s comments follow Trump’s remarks that the EU needs to do more to support Kyiv.
Germany Sends Patriot Air Defence Systems to Ukraine
Germany deployed two Patriot air defence systems to a major logistical hub in Poland that supplies Ukraine with military and humanitarian aid.
January 27
Ukraine Would Provide Coal to Moldova
President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensnky told Moldovan President Maia Sandu that Ukraine would provide coal to Transnistria at low prices if the region would supply Ukraine with electricity. Zelensky also offered to send a team of specialists to expand the power plants output of electricity.
Poland Warns of Reborn Russian Imperialism
The Polish President Andrzej Duda issued a statement to NATO member states to up their defense spending by at least 3% of their GDP to build a security zone against the “rebirth of Russian imperialism.”
January 28
General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Releases Russian Casualty Estimates
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has released an estimate relating to the amount of casualties Russia has suffered since the start of the invasion in February of 2022. Ukraine places their estimate at 831,620 personnel losses.
The United States Puts Freeze on Foreign Aid
Humanitarian projects in Ukraine are panicking as the United States of America has put a halt on foreign aid. The US Agency for International Development mission in Ukraine has announced that Washington has ordered most projects to stop.
EU to Continue Talks with Ukraine Over Gas Transit
The EU plans to continue talks with Ukraine on supplying gas to Europe. Hungary and Slovakia will also be included in these talks.
No Contact Between Washington and the Kremlin
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Washington has made no attempts to contact Moscow to arrange a meeting between President Putin and President Trump. Peskov said that he believes America is still interested in meeting with Russia.
The EU Offers Aid to Transnistria
$32 million in emergency aid has been offered to buy gas for Transnistria from the EU. European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said the bloc could not accept that people in their continent did not have access to basic services and added: “hard times reveal true friends.”
January 30
European Commission Decides Against Sanctioning Russian Liquified Natural Gas
The European Commission has decided against banning Russian liquified natural gas (LNG) in the newest set of sanctions after member states raised concerns about finding alternatives first.
Moldovagaz Reaches Agreement with Transnistria
Moldovan gas supplier Moldovagaz has reached an agreement with a supplier in Transnistria to resume gas deliveries to the separatist region. According to Moldovagaz an initial transfer of 3 million cubic meters of gas has been agreed to on credit.
January 31
Sweden Announces a $1.2 Billion Aid Package to Ukraine
Pal Jonson, Sweden’s Defence Minister announced that his nation is sending an aid package for Ukraine worth $1.2 billion. Additionally, Sweden is in negotiations with European states to send needed artillery and drone equipment to Ukraine.