Tajikistan is the only former soviet Central Asian republic to experience large-scale civil conflict. War has been a causal factor in Tajikistan remaining the most impoverished state in the region, consequently resulting in a deteriorating security infrastructure. This diagnostic found that history of armed conflict, international linkages and governance will leave Tajikistan’s risk indicators vulnerable to negative trends for some time. However, Tajikistan’s CFIP indicators project a low probability for conflict in the near term. Economic prospects look promising, while the political regime remains stable. The most-likely scenario will see Tajikistan retain its current level of stability, with Afghanistan’s future security acting as a likely trigger mechanism for future conflict.

Tajikistan – A Risk Assessment