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Sunday, March 13, 2022

2022 Afghanistan Conflict Diagnostic

2022 Afghanistan Conflict Diagnostic The Taliban’s ascension to power in Afghanistan in August of 2021 has presented a fundamental shift in the trajectory of the future of the country’s political, economic, and humanitarian sectors. The lack of access to international assistance in the wake of the change in governance has led the country to... More

Sunday, March 13, 2022

2022 Ethiopia Conflict Diagnostic

2022 Ethiopia Conflict Diagnostic Since November 2020, clashes between government forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) have plunged Ethiopia into a civil war. This diagnostic applies a risk assessment methodology developed by the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy Project to identify trends and risk levels associated with... More

Sunday, March 13, 2022

2022 Burkina Faso Conflict Diagnostic

2022 Burkina Faso Conflict Diagnostic An early 2022 coup in Burkina Faso has manifested as the result of civil unrest related to the ongoing jihadist threat in the Greater Sahel region. Since 2014, militarization and jihadism have increased and the humanitarian crisis has worsened in the last year as the Burkinabés are being internally... More

Sunday, March 13, 2022

2022 Libya Conflict Diagnostic

2022 Libya Conflict Diagnostic Since November 2020, clashes between government forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) have plunged Ethiopia into a civil war. This diagnostic applies a risk assessment methodology developed by the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy Project to identify trends and risk levels associated with key... More

Monday, April 19, 2021

Policy Project REDEEM Western Sahara

Policy Project REDEEM Western Sahara Project R.E.D.E.E.M., or Repatriation and Demilitarization Established in Morocco, is a track II, inclusive, and locally-based project with an initial 5-year timeframe and the possibility of renewal. The project will endeavour to improve the stability of Western Sahara through mediation sessions and youth... More

Monday, April 19, 2021

Policy Project SUCEED Somalia

Policy Project SUCEED Somalia The ceaseless conflict and insecurity that have continually plagued Somalia too often overshadow the people, communities, and livelihoods caught in between. Underlying these challenges are demographic stresses and socio-economic tensions that must be properly addressed for any meaningful progress to be made. With a... More

Monday, April 19, 2021

Policy Project DRIVER Somalia

Policy Project DRIVER Somalia Somalia has been plagued with decades of political and economic instability, leading to low levels of human development and weak governance. A major source of Somalia’s fragility has been its unstable experiment with democracy. Freedom House scores Somalia with a 1 out of 40 for political rights and a 6... More

Monday, April 19, 2021

Policy Project VOTE Somalia

Policy Project VOTE Somalia The stalled Somalia 2021 elections have the potential to worsen Somalia’s protracted conflict. The inability of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) to hold a secure and legitimate election is worsening clan divides and providing Al-Shabaab an opportunity to advance its position in the southern region of Somalia,... More

Friday, March 19, 2021

Integrity Watch Afghanistan  Research Methods Handbook

Integrity Watch Afghanistan  Research Methods Handbook The handbook is designed as a practical reference for researchers in the field, covering the how, what, and when of policy-oriented research. It is neither comprehensive in scope nor does it dwell on the theories underpinning its recommendations.   References with hyperlinks are included... More

Sunday, March 14, 2021

2021 Belarus Conflict Diagnostic

In August 2020, a seemingly fraudulent election led to a wave of protests in Belarus. While the autocratic president–Lukashenko–claimed to have received 80% of the vote, this was contested by the opposition and viewed skeptically by most of the international community. Given Belarus’ strong ties with Russia and newer relationship with the... More

Sunday, March 14, 2021

2021 Belarus Conflict Diagnostic Presentation

2021 Belarus Conflict Diagnostic... More

Saturday, March 13, 2021

2021 Somalia Conflict Diagnostic

In many ways, the state of Somalia has become synonymous with ceaseless conflict, militia groups, and insecurity. This plague of insecurity has been brought on by many exacerbating factors in the latter part of 2020 and the beginning of 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic, uptick in insurgencies, and environmental adversities serve to highlight... More

Saturday, March 13, 2021

2021 Somalia Conflict Diagnostic Presentation

2021 Somalia Conflict Diagnostic... More

Friday, March 12, 2021

2021 Nagorno Karabakh Conflict Diagnostic

Following the increased tensions and arms exports that preceded the September 2020 conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh, a November 9 ceasefire agreement was reached to limit the violent interaction between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This follows a long history of war and disagreements over the disputed region, and has been... More

Friday, March 12, 2021

2021 Nagorno Karabakh Conflict Diagnostic Presentation

2021 Nagorno Karabakh Conflict Diagnostic... More

Friday, March 12, 2021

2021 Morocco-Western Sahara Conflict Diagnostic

In October 2020, Saharawi refugees loyal to the Popular Front for the Liberation of Saguia el-Hamra and Rio de Oro, otherwise known as Polisario Front (PF), blocked a road near the village of Guerguerate, stranding goods and people in the demilitarized border zone in Western Sahara (WS). The emergence of Moroccan forces moving in... More

Friday, March 12, 2021

2021 Morocco-Western Sahara Conflict Diagnostic Presentation

2021 Morocco-Western Sahara Conflict Diagnostic... More

Wednesday, October 21, 2020

Prediction of Intrastate Conflict Using State Structural Factors and Events Data

Intrastate conflict is defined by the occurrence of one or more highly destabilizing events collectively termed a crisis of interest (COI). Two separate two-year periods between 1990 and 2005 were examined in twenty-five globally dispersed countries. COIs occurred in about 6 percent of all the half-monthly periods examined While model accuracy... More

Wednesday, October 21, 2020

The Limits and Strengths of Conflict Prediction

There are two major reasons why policymakers pay greater attention to case studies than empirical models. First, they are generally older, having completed their primary education well before the behavioral revolution, and the government doesn’t provide much incentive to stay current in your field. Case studies are generally easy to understand... More

Tuesday, September 8, 2020

Fragile and Conflict-Affected States in the Age of COVID 19: A 2020 Country Indicators for Foreign Policy Report

2020 CIFP Fragility Report Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCAS) remain more relevant than ever. After a brief period of declining fragility at the turn of the century, FCAS have become more prominent as their precarious situation worsens in a COVID 19 world. In the last decade or so, we have seen an increase in... More

Friday, May 1, 2020

Early warning and COVID19—bridging the gap between analysis and response

Early warning and COVID19—bridging the gap between analysis and response - The Hill... More

Monday, April 6, 2020

Fragile States and COVID 19- Afghanistan Project

Fragile States and COVID 19- Afghanistan Project EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The upcoming intra-Afghan negotiations present an opportunity for Canada to strengthen women’s participation in the peace process. The meaningful inclusion of women in the peace process is essential for successful negotiations. Moreover, taking such initiative can strengthen... More

Monday, April 6, 2020

Fragile States and COVID19 – Lebanon Project

Fragile States and COVID19 - Lebanon Project Executive Summary To be implemented over a period of 5 years, the Canadian Lebanese Agreement for Economic Success (CLAES) is tasked with aiding in the economic development of Lebanon through the promotion of anti corruption practices and cooperation between Canada, Lebanon, and other relevant... More

Monday, March 9, 2020

2020 Afghanistan Conflict Diagnostic

2020 Afghanistan Conflict... More

Monday, March 2, 2020

2020 Lebanon Conflict Diagnostic

2020 Lebanon Conflict... More

Monday, March 2, 2020

2020 Bolivia Conflict Diagnostic

2020 Bolivia Conflict... More

Monday, March 2, 2020

2020 South Sudan Conflict Diagnostic

2020 South Sudan Conflict... More

Monday, March 2, 2020

2020 Zimbabwe Conflict Diagnostic

2020 Zimbabwe Conflict... More

Saturday, February 8, 2020

Categorization of States: Beyond Strong and Weak

Categorization of States: Beyond Strong and... More

Saturday, February 8, 2020

Grey-Zone Conflict : Implications for Conflict Management

... More

Wednesday, May 8, 2019

2019 Conflict Risk Assessment – Uighurs in China

Executive Summary The Uighurs in China remain under threat of assimilation, repression and discrimination, slowly becoming marginalised in their indigenous home. Conflict has been ongoing since 1991, with sporadically occurring violence and ethnic riots. On April 24, 2013, 21 people were killed in Kashgar; July 2009 saw riots in Urumqi, with 197... More

Wednesday, May 8, 2019

2019 Canadian Action for Integration in Cameroon

Executive Summary To be implemented over a period of six and a half years, the Canadian Action for Integration in Cameroon project, or CAIC, is purposed with fostering a lasting peace between Anglophone Cameroonians and the national government. The project is twofold; consisting of a preliminary mediatory phase that is to be immediately followed... More

Tuesday, April 2, 2019

Cameroon 2019 Conflict Diagnostic

Cameroon 2019 Conflict Diagnostic The nation of Cameroon was formed via a merger of two distinct colonial territories, one administered by the British and the other by the French. The two territories initially joined together in 1961 as a federation called the Federal Republic of Cameroon, but in 1972 the federation was abolished in... More

Sunday, March 17, 2019

2019 Libya Conflict Diagnostic

Libyan elections are tentatively set for mid-2019 and have the potential to be a major stabilizing or destabilizing factor to the current situation. Without a constitution or central government with national authority, the country’s source of power and institutions remain fragmented. Despite some Libyans returning home due to a perceived... More

Sunday, March 17, 2019

2019 Ukraine Conflict Diagnostic

With 13,000 dead and 30,000 wounded, the Ukrainian crisis remains pertinent moving into 2019. Commanding the interest of stakeholders on both sides of the globe, this is a crisis that does not show any signs of slowing down. Caught between two monoliths of economic influence, Ukraine has seen ethnic and nationalist divisions be exacerbated... More

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