Tuesday, September 8, 2020Fragile and Conflict-Affected States in the Age of COVID 19: A 2020 Country Indicators for Foreign Policy Report2020 CIFP Fragility Report Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCAS) remain more relevant than ever. After a brief period of declining fragility at the turn of the century, FCAS have become more prominent as their precarious situation worsens in a COVID 19 world. In the last decade or so, we have seen an increase in... MoreFriday, May 1, 2020Early warning and COVID19—bridging the gap between analysis and responseEarly warning and COVID19—bridging the gap between analysis and response - The Hill... MoreMonday, March 9, 20202020 Afghanistan Conflict Diagnostic2020 Afghanistan Conflict... MoreMonday, March 2, 20202020 Lebanon Conflict Diagnostic2020 Lebanon Conflict... MoreMonday, March 2, 20202020 Bolivia Conflict Diagnostic2020 Bolivia Conflict... MoreMonday, March 2, 20202020 South Sudan Conflict Diagnostic2020 South Sudan Conflict... MoreMonday, March 2, 20202020 Zimbabwe Conflict Diagnostic2020 Zimbabwe Conflict... MoreSaturday, February 8, 2020Categorization of States: Beyond Strong and WeakCategorization of States: Beyond Strong and... MoreSaturday, February 8, 2020Grey-Zone Conflict : Implications for Conflict Management... MoreWednesday, May 8, 20192019 Conflict Risk Assessment – Uighurs in ChinaExecutive Summary The Uighurs in China remain under threat of assimilation, repression and discrimination, slowly becoming marginalised in their indigenous home. Conflict has been ongoing since 1991, with sporadically occurring violence and ethnic riots. On April 24, 2013, 21 people were killed in Kashgar; July 2009 saw riots in Urumqi, with 197... MoreTuesday, April 2, 2019Cameroon 2019 Conflict DiagnosticCameroon 2019 Conflict Diagnostic The nation of Cameroon was formed via a merger of two distinct colonial territories, one administered by the British and the other by the French. The two territories initially joined together in 1961 as a federation called the Federal Republic of Cameroon, but in 1972 the federation was abolished in... MoreSunday, March 17, 20192019 Libya Conflict DiagnosticLibyan elections are tentatively set for mid-2019 and have the potential to be a major stabilizing or destabilizing factor to the current situation. Without a constitution or central government with national authority, the country’s source of power and institutions remain fragmented. Despite some Libyans returning home due to a perceived... MoreSunday, March 17, 20192019 Ukraine Conflict DiagnosticWith 13,000 dead and 30,000 wounded, the Ukrainian crisis remains pertinent moving into 2019. Commanding the interest of stakeholders on both sides of the globe, this is a crisis that does not show any signs of slowing down. Caught between two monoliths of economic influence, Ukraine has seen ethnic and nationalist divisions be exacerbated... MoreSunday, March 17, 20192019 Yemen Conflict DiagnosticThe ongoing conflict in Yemen with multiple internal and external actors has the country facing severe risks of militarization, economic performance, human development, governance and political stability. Failure to progress in peace talks has international linkages, demographic stress, and population and heterogeneity at high risk. Only the... MoreWednesday, March 1, 2017Colombia 2017 Conflict Risk Assessment PPTColombia 2017 Conflict Risk Assessment... MoreThursday, March 3, 2016Cyprus Conflict Risk Diagnostic 2016The Northern third of the island is the primarily Turkish Cypriot & Turkish settler “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.” Although arguably de facto sovereign, TRNC is recognized as a state by only Turkey. The internationally recognized government de jure of all of Cyprus is the Republic of Cyprus with its capital in the south.... MoreTuesday, March 1, 2016Burundi Conflict Risk Diagnostic 2016Since gaining independence from Belgium in 1962, Burundi has been racked by successive waves of political violence. In the past fifty years, Burundi has suffered three civil conflicts, eight attempted coups d’etat, and two genocides.i The most devastating conflict began in 1993 and was fuelled by instability in neighbouring Rwanda and the... MoreMonday, February 29, 2016Syria Conflict Risk Diagnostic 2016This diagnostic report examines the recent trends in structural factors from 2011 to 2014 in comparison to the 2006 Syria Baseline Report produced by the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP). It also examines the role of internal and external stakeholders, who have contributed to the ongoing conflict. The crucial obstacles preventing... MoreSunday, February 28, 2016Myanmar Conflict Risk Diagnostic 2016Myanmar gained independence from Britain in 1948 and functioned as a representative democracy until a military coup in 1962. Myanmar became a military dictatorship, with the power of the military formally enshrined in the Constitution in 1974. Under the Constitution, the Army is guaranteed 25% of seats in the upper and lower chamber –... MoreSunday, February 28, 2016Ukraine – Conflict Risk Diagnostic 2016Since declaring independence in 1991, government corruption and economic turbulence have contributed to political unrest in Ukraine. With previous protests yielding little structural change, many Ukrainians have grown frustrated with the lack of action on promised reforms and are increasingly looking to EU integration as a way to move forward. In... MoreFriday, January 29, 2016A Global Review For Canada-Options and InsightsReduced funding, proliferation of projects, and lack of policy coherence poses an individual constraint to Canada's Official Development Assistance (ODA). These problems has led to Canada's failure to meet the growing global demand for ODA, the amount of resources tied up with administrative costs, and the harming of the efficiency of Canadian aid... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Human Rights and Field Operations – Chapter 3 & ConclusionThis chapter begins by discussing these variations of HRFOs in greater detail. A distinction is made between a human rights “field presence” and “field operation.” The second section examines how HRFOs respond to HRVs through monitoring and institution-building – and evaluates the effectiveness of each type of response in deescalating... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Human Rights and Field Operations – Chapter 1 & 2The rise of identity-based, protracted conflicts has altered the traditional means of responding to threats of violence within states. 1 In his 1992 report, “Agenda for Peace,” former United Nations Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali called for an improved approach to responding to intra-state conflict. He concluded: “Peacemaking and... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015The Influence of Aid in Situations of Violent Conflict (OECD)Over the past decade, the mandate of aid has been extended significantly. The end of the Cold War brought about far-reaching political changes that culminated in a great rise in civil wars, especially in Africa and the former Soviet Union, as well as a willingness by the international community to promote democratic and peaceful... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Early Warning Methods: Background Report and Methodological NotesThis report presents a framework to direct the future efforts of researchers working on the CIFP project to tailor it to the needs of foreign policy analysts and the early warning research community. It describes procedures to translate information from the internationally-recognized CIFP database, in combination with insights from foreign affairs... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015CIFP Sample Survey of Foreign Policy AnalystsCIFP Sample Survey of Foreign Policy... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015CIFP Needs Assessment ReportThis assessment was conducted for the purposes of determining the needs of CIFP clients as the project begins to expand its capabilities and partnerships. This feedback has clarified both the positive and negative aspects of users perceptions of the database and its purpose. This information is critical for making informed decisions about future... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Early Warning Methodology ReportThis report provides direction for researchers working on the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) project to tailor it to the needs of foreign policy analysts, the early warning research community, and the user base identified in the May 2000 Needs Assessment—findings of which note that interest and enthusiasm for CIFP is growing, and... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015CIFP Sample Country Survey: KyrgystanThe Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) team has identified you as an expert in the present state of affairs in Kyrgyztan. We hope you'll be willing to share your insights by completing the enclosed survey regarding the conditions of foreign policy concern that presently exist in Kyrgyztan. CIFP Sample Country Survey:... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Preliminary Selection of IndicatorsThe Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) project has recently begun work on a pilot project in partnership with the Forum for Early Warning and Early Response (FEWER) and the University of Maryland Global Events Data System (GEDS). The project will begin the integration of the CIFP into the FEWER network, and will emphasize... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Interim Report: April 2001As CIFP is approaching the half way point of Phase II development in accordance with the November 1999 proposal to CIDA, this document provides an interim report of progress made towards the project’s objectives, disbursements of project funds, and outlines the experiences to date. The Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) project began... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Conflict Vulnerability Analysis: Issues, Tools, and ResponsesGiven the reality that nine of the 22 countries in Sub-Sahara Africa with USAID bilateral missions are currently involved in or have been involved in internal conflict within the past five years, USAID missions are integrating conflict prevention, mitigation, and recovery (CPMR) perspectives more fully into its programming strategies. This... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Conflict Prevention, Gender and Early Warning: A Work in ProgressThe integration of gender specific indicators into early warning systems is crucial for sustaining an effective approach to estimating conflict potential. Conflict affects women and men differently and although these effects vary widely across cultures depending upon the role of women in a particular society, it is clear that armed conflict... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015The Rise of NETPOLITIK: How the Internet Is Changing International Politics and DiplomacyConcerns for the death or dismemberment of thousands of noncombatants throughout the world from hidden land mines led in 1992 to the formation of a nongovernmental organization (NGO) to mobilize constituencies toward banning land mines. As one solution to the problem, the new International Campaign to Ban Landmines proposed a multilateral treaty... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015The Effectiveness of Mediation to End Internal Conflict: Some Preliminary ResultsStruggles involving civil wars, local insurrections or ethnic violence far outnumber those stemming from external aggression or conflict between states, especially in recent years. These internal conflicts, over identity, government or territory, are arguably more difficult to resolve through peaceful negotiation than their interstate... 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