CAR Conflict Diagnostic 2023

The Central African Republic (CAR) was thought to be on the path to stability in 2019, but further fighting erupted in late
2020 due to contested elections. This has continued a cycle of violence and unrest, leading to a deteriorating humanitarian
situation. The aim of this diagnostic is to evaluate the current situation using a risk assessment methodology. Key trends
and major risks, associated with nine thematic clusters, are used to highlight three potential scenarios in the short to
medium term. Despite attempts to quell armed groups, ongoing violence and ethnic tensions remain major obstacles to
achieving stability.