2022 Afghanistan Conflict Diagnostic

The Taliban’s ascension to power in Afghanistan in August of 2021 has presented a fundamental shift in the trajectory of the future of the country’s political, economic, and humanitarian sectors. The lack of access to international assistance in the wake of the change in governance has led the country to near extreme poverty, impending famine, mass malnutrition, and a failing economy. Regional and
environmental factors only exacerbate these negative effects. The Taliban’s history of violating the rights of women and ethnic minorities only furthers the current humanitarian crisis enveloping the country. This conflict diagnostic uses data trends and risk assessment indicators from the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy Project (CIFP) to analyze the current status of the conflict in Afghanistan, as of 2022. This report draws on historical context, conflict risk assessment, and analysis of key stakeholders to come to three projected scenarios for the conflict in Afghanistan, based on current trajectories