In many ways, the state of Somalia has become synonymous with ceaseless conflict, militia groups, and insecurity. This plague of insecurity has been brought on by many exacerbating factors in the latter part of 2020 and the beginning of 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic, uptick in insurgencies, and environmental adversities serve to highlight Somalia’s fragility. This report bases its conflict risk assessment on the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) methodology to evaluate Somalia’s performance. Using the nine clusters of indicators from the CIFP evaluative framework to examine Somalia’s level of stability, this report analyzes internal and external stakeholders and demonstrates findings that contribute to the state’s three case scenarios. This report concludes that the most likely scenario to arise within the first quarter of 2021 is a significant increase in armed conflict in Somalia, particularly in the area of Mogadishu, while the best case remains largely contingent on the success of an upcoming federal election, and the worst concerns the continued undermining of the authority, legitimacy and capacity framework.

2021 Somalia Conflict Diagnostic