2022 Libya Conflict Diagnostic

Since November 2020, clashes between government forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) have plunged Ethiopia into a civil war. This diagnostic applies a risk assessment methodology developed by the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy Project to identify trends and risk levels associated with key indicator clusters and formulate possible short to medium-term scenarios. Elusive commitments to a ceasefire, persisting violence fueled by ethnic tensions, and a worsening humanitarian crisis erode prospects for resolution in the near future.