Following the increased tensions and arms exports that preceded the September 2020 conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh, a November 9 ceasefire agreement was reached to limit the violent interaction between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This follows a long history of war and disagreements over the disputed region, and has been exacerbated by increasing militarization unmaintained basic infrastructure, ethnic strife aggravated by forced displacement, and the internationalization of the conflict by Russia and Turkey to gain influence in the region. This report analyzes available data trends using the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy methodology. Conflict indicators are utilized to assess the current situation and to predict the conflict’s future trajectory. Although the establishment of a successful peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan would be the best-case scenario, it is likely that threats between the two continue and the socioeconomic prospects in the Nagorno-Karabakh region remain constrained. As for the worst-case scenario, the possibility remains that the situation degrades back into violent conflict that draws in allied powers.

2021 Nagorno Karabakh Conflict Diagnostic