Thursday, August 27, 2015Philippines: A Risk Assessment BriefThe root causes of much of the current conflict in the Philippines are ethnic in nature. Comprising five percent of the Filipino population, Muslims are an ethnic minority in the nation as a whole, but are concentrated in the southern islands of Mindanaoi in the Sulu archipelago. This federal government, which has historically favoured... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Papua New Guinea : A Risk Assessment BriefPapua New Guinea's population of 5.6 million is one of the most heterogeneous in the world, with more than 700 indigenous languages spoken by several thousand communities divided by mountainous terrain and sea. Approximately 85% of the population relies on semi-subsistence agriculture. Since independence from Australia in 1975, the country has... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Madagascar: A Risk Assessment BriefMadagascar's population is comprised of mixed Asian and African origin. Asian features are predominant in the Central Highlands people (the Merina, 3 million citizens) while the coastal dwellers (the Betsileo, 2 million citizens) have African features. The main language spoken is Malagasy, a language that has Polynesian roots. Madagascar: A Risk... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Liberia: A Risk Assessment BriefLiberia’s relatively stable and democratic First Republic collapsed into anarchy in 1979 following an increase in rice prices. In 1985 Samuel Doe seized control of the country in a military coup, and over the next twelve years Liberia would remain a hotspot for internal political, as well as military factionist movements. Numerous mediated... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Kyrgyzstan: A Risk Assessment BriefThe current tensions in Kyrgyzstan can be traced back to the legacy of Soviet rule in Central Asia. In the early 1920’s, Moscow attempted to fortify its centralized power in the region by curbing potential ethnic nationalist movements. To achieve this objective, the Soviet regime delineated borders across ethnic lines, thus creating ethnic... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Kashmir: A Risk Assessment BriefThe root of the conflict between India and Pakistan centers on the disputed region of Kashmir. Although the region was ostensibly ceded to India upon independence in 1947, the government of Pakistan has argued the unconstitutionality of the rule since that time, claiming that because Kashmir was occupied by a Muslim majority, it should... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Jamaica: A Risk Assessment BriefJamaica gained independence from Britain in 1962, and the Jamaican Labour Party (JLP) and the People’s National Party (PNP) have since shared power through free and fair elections. Prime Minister Percival J. Patterson (PNP) has been leading the country since 1992 but recently announced he would step down. Party leadership elections have been... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Guyana: A Risk Assessment BriefGuyana's present state of affairs exists upon a backdrop of ethnic polarization, political tensions, poverty, economic instability, rising crime and drug trafficking. The ethnic tensions rest on a historical foundation that began as early as the 1600s, when the Dutch introduced African slaves to Guyana. Guyana: A Risk Assessment... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Guatemala: A Risk Assessment BriefThroughout its history Guatemala has been one of the most iniquitous and violent societies in Latin America. Poverty is particularly acute in rural and indigenous communities, where illiteracy, infant mortality and malnutrition are pervasive (BBC, 2004a). Reforms to address these issues began in the 1940s, but were brought to an abrupt halt in... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Georgia: A Risk Assessment BriefGaining its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, in 2004 Georgia remains a democratizing state made up of competing regions possessing greater historical and geographical cohesiveness than the country as a whole. Zviad Gamsakhurdia, Georgia’s first elected president, was overthrown in a military revolt in 1991-1992 and replaced by Eduard... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Ethiopia: A Risk Assessment BriefEthiopia's turbulent history is marked by authoritarian rule, repression of rights, famines, civil war, ethnic divisions, tense relations with neighbours, and political and economic instability. In addition, Ethiopia hosts more refugees than it produces. Despite these facts, at present a fragile peace prevails. Ethiopia: A Risk Assessment... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Democratic Republic of Congo: A Risk Assessment BriefThe Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), colonized by Belgium in 1885, became independent in 1960. Due to their interest in the vast minerals and other resources in the region, the US and Belgium backed the dictator Mobutu in overthrowing previous leader, Prime Minister Patrice Lumumba in 1960. Corruption siphoning off massive personal wealth, a... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Colombia Colombia: A Risk Assessment BriefColombia has a long history of violence, human rights abuse and civil unrest. In the late 19th century, the Spanish colonial ruling class divided into two political parties: the federalist liberals and centrist conservatives, marking the beginning of a long and heated political battle. Colombia Colombia: A Risk Assessment... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Angola: A Risk Assessment BriefPortuguese explorers founded Angola’s capital, Luanda, in 1575, thus beginning 400 years of colonial rule. In the 1960s, various groups in Angola fought for independence, the most well known being the Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola (MPLA), and the União Nacional para a Independencia Total de Angola (UNITA). In 1975 a transitional... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Afghanistan: A Risk Assessment BriefAfghanistan has had a turbulent history of conflict for over three decades. After the collapse of the constitutional monarchy led by King Zahir Shah in 1973 and the establishment of a republic by Muhammad Daud, the country fell into the throws of civil strife. A leftist coup that overthrew and killed Daud in 1978... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Responding to Terrorism: Implications For Regional and Global StabilityIt is clear that Western responses to the terrorist attacks will have far reaching consequences for regional and global stability. It is out of grave humanitarian concern that the Forum on Early Warning and Early Response (FEWER) – a global network of organisations specialising in detecting early stage conflicts, warning against them, and... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Assessing Country Risk: Creating an Index of SeverityThe development of a country’s capacity, legitimacy and authority, all essential features of country risk potential, is not a linear process but rather a function of a number of interrelated and dynamic structural factors. 1 This is especially relevant to explaining country risk since changing structural conditions can reverse (in very short... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Methodology of Sources for Indicators for the Caucasus and Central AsiaThe HDI is a simple average of three indicators: longevity, as measured by life expectancy at birth; educational attainment, as measured by a combination of adult literacy (two-thirds weight) and the combined gross primary, secondary and tertiary enrolment ratio (one-third weight); and standard of living, as measured by real GDP per capita (PPP$).... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Risk Assessment TemplatesRisk Assessment Template A4 Risk Assessment Template Risk Assessment Template:... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015The Fall-out of Military Strikes Against Afghanistan: Regional and Global RisksThe U.S.-led responses to the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 involve a range of military, diplomatic, intelligence and law enforcement measures. Following the recent launch of air strikes against Afghanistan, humanitarian and conflict prevention practitioners are asking what the fall-out will be. This policy brief provides an overview and... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Conflict Risk Assessment Report: Cambodia, Indonesia, PhilippinesThis report provides an indicators-based assessment of conflict risk in three South Asian countries of Cambodia, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The analysis crosses nine interrelated issue areas identified as underlying potential for conflict development: History of Armed Conflict; Governance and Political Instability; Militarization; Population... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Conflict Risk Assessment Report: West Africa: Mano River Union and SenegambiaThis report provides an indicators-based assessment of conflict risk in the five West African countries of Gambia, Guinea, Liberia, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. The analysis crosses nine interrelated issue areas identified as underlying potential for conflict development: History of Armed Conflict; Governance and Political Instability;... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Conflict Risk Assessment Report Sub-Sahara AfricaThis report provides an indicators-based assessment of conflict risk in Sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis crosses nine interrelated issue areas identified as underlying potential for conflict development: History of Armed Conflict; Governance and Political Instability; Militarization; Population Heterogeneity; Demographic Stress; Economic... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Conflict Risk Assessment Report African Great LakesThis report provides an indicators-based assessment of conflict risk in the six East African/Great Lakes countries of Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. The analysis crosses nine interrelated issue areas identified as underlying potential for conflict development: History of Armed Conflict; Governance... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Conflict Risk Assessment Report: Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, and UkraineThe last ten years have been a time of much change for the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC). The region as a whole has been struggling with the collapse of Socialism and the painful transition to democracy and capitalism. Periods of change and transition such as this often contribute to increased risk of... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Implications Of the Anti-Terrorism Campaign For Conflict PreventionThe Implications of the Anti-Terrorism Campaign for Conflict Prevention – A Preparedness Resource for the Field is our second report on the anti-terrorism campaign. Its aim is to shed light on implications of the campaign for conflict prevention efforts at a regional and global level. The report is prepared by analysts drawn from within... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015East Africa Diagnostics and Risk AssessmentsPart II of the peacebuilding practitioners’ Regional Workshop on Conflict Early Warning and Response Methodology and Application was held in Nairobi, between February 16 – 22, 2003. There was a need for the participants who had attended the Part 1 workshop in July 2002 to gain more insight into Conflict Early Warning to Response... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Conflict Risk Assessment: OceaniaThis report provides an analytical assessment of conflict risk in Oceania. The Oceania region can be further divided into the sub-regions (on the basis of geography, culture, language, etc.) Polynesia, Melanesia, and Micronesia. Conflict Risk Assessment:... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015CIFP Watch List Report No. 1The goal of the project was to identify 3 countries at risk of violent armed conflict in the next 3 years in order for an appropriate intervention to be developed. The methodology for the watch list draws on open source information and the methodologies developed by CIFP researchers as noted in appendix a and... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015An Early Warning System for Timor-LesteA Systematic Approach to Conflict Prevention Phase I: The Early Warning System (EWS) is intended to provide stakeholders in Timor-Leste with a conflict monitoring and prevention system. Like the UNDP EWS system established in Kosovo, it will be a strategic planning, early response, and policy-planning tool for development and peace-building actors... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Yemen Risk AssessmentThe evolution towards Yemeni statehood can be viewed as the convergence of two separate and conflicting societies. North Yemen, know known as the Yemen Arab Republic (YAR), was ruled by the Ottoman Empire until its dissolution. In sharp contrast, South Yemen was ruled by the British until 1937 when it became a crown colony.... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Pakistan Risk AssessmentBeginning with its bloody independence from Britain in 1947, Pakistan has been a country in turmoil that has lurched from one crisis to another and has been stained by violence and conflict. Its birth was marked by unprecedented, spontaneous, and massive population transfers between itself and India, its neighbour and rival. More enduring has... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Honduras Risk AssessmentDiscovered in 1502, Honduras remained under Spanish administration until achieving independence in 1821. Military rule, which began in 1963 with a military coup that displaced a democratically-elected regime in 1963, lasted until the reinstatement of democracy in 1982. The current president, Manuel Zelaya (PLH), gained office in 2006. His program... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Burundi Risk AssessmentBurundi is at risk of sliding back into conflict. The peace process initiated by the 2000 Arusha accords remains unconsolidated. Although fighting has stopped, except for sporadic outbreaks of violence, underlying problems remain unresolved. The government is a prize because it is the most important source of wealth in the country, but a lack... MoreThursday, August 27, 2015Sub-national Report for Aceh: Events, Scenarios and AnalysisThis sub-national report has been produced by the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) for use by non-governmental organizations, businesses, academics, Canadian policy-makers, and other parties concerned with the current and future state of sub-national regions. The Iraqi Kurdistan Events Monitoring Profile is based on a fusion of CIFP... 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