The goal of the project was to identify 3 countries at risk of violent armed conflict in the next 3 years in order for an appropriate intervention to be developed. The methodology for the watch list draws on open source information and the methodologies developed by CIFP researchers as noted in appendix a and b. In general terms our methodology entailed: 1. A preliminary selection which identified 30 and then 10 countries that are not yet at a level of significant violent conflict but which exhibit many of the indicators of potential serious violent conflict both in the immediate and medium term; 2. A second-stage selection that identified 3 countries in which it was determined that a third party conflict prevention response is appropriate.

CIFP Watch List Report No. 1