In October 2020, Saharawi refugees loyal to the Popular Front for the Liberation of Saguia el-Hamra and Rio de Oro, otherwise known as Polisario Front (PF), blocked a road near the village of Guerguerate, stranding goods and people in the demilitarized border zone in Western Sahara (WS). The emergence of Moroccan forces moving in to restore free movement along the road in November led to clashes with the PF, and the 29-year ceasefire between the two parties inched towards breakdown. This diagnostic used 5-year data trends from the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy Project (CIFP) along with the recent developments to conclude that a return to the pre-October 2020 status quo is likely within the next 6 months, accompanied by low-intensity attacks along the road in Guerguerate

2021 Morocco-Western Sahara Conflict Diagnostic