The goal of the project was to identify 3 countries at risk of violent armed conflict in the next 1-3 years in order for an appropriate intervention to be developed. This included: 1. A preliminary selection which identified 10 countries that are not yet at a level of significant violent conflict but which exhibit many of the indicators of potential serious violent conflict both in the immediate and medium term (2-3 years); 2. A second-stage selection that identified 3 countries in which it was determined that a third party conflict prevention response is appropriate. This second stage analysis used criteria for determining the viability of preventing the outbreak of violent conflict in countries specified in the preliminary selection round.