In January 2004, Criminal Intelligence Service Canada (CISC) initiated Project SOOTHSAYER. The goal of the project was to develop a strategic early warning system (SEWS) for organized and serious crime in Canada. The project had three broad objectives: I) the development of a methodology suited to intelligence warning for law enforcement; II) the establishment of a reporting mechanism; and III) the development of dissemination and communications methods (i.e. a product line). SEWS focuses on emergent events and phenomena – be they local, national or international, demographic, economic or technological – that could potentially alter the organized and serious crime situation in Canada. CISC sought out the support of the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University, which had a demonstrated expertise in warning for state failure, risk assessment and early warning. A central element of this venture was the development of the project’s scanning component, known as the SENTINEL Watch List. This report, commissioned by the CISC and produced by CIFP, is the essential background to one of the project’s pilot SENTINEL on the state of the methamphetamine market in Canada and the role of organized crime within it.

The Potential Expansion of Methamphetamine Production and Distribution in Canada