North Korea Conflict Diagnostic 2023
North Korea’s conflict with the international community is a high-risk and deteriorating situation.
Despite relative stability in governance and militarization, the interdependence of the central
government with the military and high levels of demographic stress are significant risk factors.
All key stakeholders have a negative impact, and no single entity can achieve positive
developments. The expected outcome is that the conflict will remain a frozen conflict in the next
six months, with North Korea continuing to expand its nuclear arsenal and increasing tensions in
the region. There is limited communication between North and South Korea, making it unlikely that
any major progress will be made towards resolving the conflict in the near future. North Korea’s
nuclear development is a serious threat to peace, security, and the international non-proliferation
regime, with the South Korean government and other states making ongoing efforts to resolve the
issue.i