Russian Conscription Drive Amidst Ceasefire Talks

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an order to draft 160,000 men as part of Russia’s biannual conscription drive. This year’s spring draft marks Russia’s largest conscription campaign since 2011 when the Defense Ministry called up over 200,000 men. It is also a marked increase from last spring, which saw Russia draft 150,000 men. This spring’s increase comes after Putin issued a decree in September 2024 to expand the Russian army by 180,000 soldiers, setting the total number of active servicemen at 1.5 million. However, this is not to be confused with combat-service mobilization, a lesson learned by the Kremlin after protests erupted in the fall of 2022 following partial mobilization. 

Despite Russian society’s growing discontent with the war and the population showing disdain towards previous attempts at mobilization, Putin plans to conduct the largest military draft in 14 years to compensate for significant military losses and sustain its war efforts in Ukraine. Contradictory to ongoing ceasefire negotiations and the Kremlin’s expression that it is open to negotiations, it is clear that Russia is preparing to continue its war of aggression in Ukraine. While the official narrative originating from the Kremlin is that the 160,000 from the Spring draft will not see combat on the frontline, the UK Defense Ministry suggested that Russia is likely to increase the number and size of units in its ground forces to accommodate most of the additional soldiers. 

Russia’s decision to increase the size of its military amidst ongoing ceasefire talks, which have continually worsened as Trump has begun to express his dissatisfaction with Putin, is worrying for Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has claimed that Russia is dragging out the peace process as it is preparing a massive new offensive to grab more Ukrainian territory before actual peace talks begin. Ukrainian intelligence has reported indications of new offences being prepared in the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions. It is evident with this mass conscription drive that Russia is intentionally dragging out negotiations by making diplomatic promises they evidently do not intend to keep in order to buy time and occupy further Ukrainian territory. 

It is also clear that with the renewed conscription drive the heavy military losses are taking a toll on the Russian military. Now is a critical time for Ukraine’s reliable allies, such as Canada and the EU, to act decisively and uniformly in their support for Kyiv and condemnation of Moscow. By passing additional sanctions that target Russia’s oil and gas exports, preparing new packages of military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine, and continuing to negotiate the details of a Western peacekeeping mission to be deployed once a ceasefire is reached, Ukraine and its allies can apply pressure onto Russia and undermine Moscow’s appetite for aggression at a critical time.