Security in the Heartland: Navigating Russia, China, And Central Asia’s Interaction

Author: Faramarz Tamanna (University of Ottawa).

Summary: The Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan after the U.S. and NATO’s withdrawal in August 2021 has shifted regional and global security dynamics. Afghanistan, a historical crossroads, is now a focal point of geopolitical competition. The power vacuum left by the U.S. and its allies has been filled by regional actors like Russia, China, and Central Asia, each engaging with the Taliban based on strategic, economic, and security priorities.

For Russia, the Taliban’s resurgence raises concerns about Central Asia and the rise of extremist groups like ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K) and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). China’s focus is economic, with Afghanistan as a key part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and a source of rare minerals. Still, it also worries about the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). Central Asian countries sharing borders with Afghanistan face more direct challenges. Uzbekistan values Afghanistan for regional connectivity, while Turkmenistan focuses on energy projects like the TAPI gas pipeline. Tajikistan has security concerns, especially regarding its Tajik population, while Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan engage through security groups like CSTO despite not sharing borders.

Globally, the Taliban’s return threatens stability, human rights, and anti-terrorism efforts. For Canada, Afghanistan’s instability poses risks to regional allies and global security, particularly with the potential resurgence of terrorism. The Taliban’s restrictive policies undermine decades of international human rights efforts.

This memo examines the interactions of Russia, China, and Central Asia with the Taliban
and offers recommendations for Canada on security, humanitarian, and economic
issues in Afghanistan.

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