NATO’s Shift in Burden Sharing
Author: Colby Rogers
Date: February 13th, 2025
Preview
NATO defence ministers pushed for higher spending, readiness, and industrial growth in Brussels. U.S. Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, urged Europe to take the lead in its own security, marking a shift in transatlantic defence dynamics.
Who Are the Actors to Watch?
Pete Hegseth (U.S. Secretary of Defense)
Hegseth is leading the charge for NATO allies to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP, arguing that stronger European military investment is essential for long-term security. He also wants NATO members to expand weapons production to meet growing operational demands. His stance reflects a broader U.S. strategy of shifting more responsibility to Europe, signaling that Washington expects allies to carry a larger share of the defence burden.
Mark Rutte (NATO Secretary General)
As NATO’s new Secretary General, Rutte must balance U.S. demands for increased defence spending with the need to maintain transatlantic unity. He argues that NATO’s deterrence and defence strategy requires not just more money but also a stronger and more efficient defence industrial base. Rutte is expected to lead efforts to streamline procurement, strengthen supply chains, and encourage European nations to coordinate their military production efforts.
European NATO Allies
Many European countries face mounting pressure to enhance troop readiness and weapons manufacturing. Smaller EU states, such as Estonia and Lithuania, already exceed the 5% defence spending benchmark, but major economies such as Germany and France remain hesitant. Their reluctance stems from economic constraints, political opposition, and competing domestic priorities. However, with the U.S. pushing for greater contributions, these countries may face difficult choices in the coming months.
What Are the Main Issues?
Defence Spending Pressure
Currently, two-thirds of NATO members meet the 2% GDP defence spending target, but the U.S. insists this is no longer enough. Hegseth’s call for a 5% benchmark has divided allies, with some arguing it is unrealistic amid economic uncertainty.
Industrial Capacity Concerns
The war in Ukraine has exposed major weaknesses in European defence industries. Stockpiles are running low, and existing production lines cannot keep up with demand. NATO now faces the urgent challenge of ramping up weapons manufacturing, securing supply chains, and ensuring long-term sustainability.
Strategic Autonomy vs. U.S. Leadership
Hegseth’s remarks reflect a U.S. shift toward Europe taking greater control over its own security. While some European leaders welcome this push for strategic autonomy, others worry it could weaken transatlantic cohesion if the U.S. reduces its military presence.
Where Do We Look Next?
The Hague Summit (June 2025)
NATO’s next summit will test whether allies can meet higher defence spending demands. Major economies like Germany and France face pressure to increase military budgets and strengthen NATO’s deterrence strategy.
Ukraine Aid in 2025
Europe and Canada provided 60% of NATO’s military aid to Ukraine in 2024, but economic and political shifts could challenge future commitments. Nations like Germany and Poland must decide whether to sustain or expand support.
NATO’s Defence Industry
NATO must ramp up weapons production to meet operational needs. The key question is whether European allies will expand their defence industries and adopt a wartime production mindset to match U.S. expectations.
Sources: NATO – News: NATO Defence Ministers conclude meeting, focus on defence spending and support for Ukraine, 13-Feb.-2025; Hegseth Tells NATO Hard Power Provides Deterrence, Defense > U.S. Department of Defense > Defense Department News; NATO’s Rutte says Kyiv must be involved in everything about Ukraine | Reuters