Negotiation Trouble for the United States and Russia
Author: Thomas Cline-Fedorus
Following Donald Trump’s growing displeasure with Vladimir Putin and the US’s previously perceived favourability towards Russia, issues regarding a ceasefire in Ukraine have continued to occur. First, Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs have indirectly affected Russia’s economy and ability to continue its aggression toward Ukraine. Second, the UN Security Council and its ambassadors have used rhetoric that signals their views on a ceasefire in Ukraine. Lastly, actions by European and other allies of Ukraine may dictate the future of negotiations.
On April 7th, economic troubles were reported for Russia as Russian Urals oil prices fell to the lowest price since 2023. This low pricing is reported to have been caused by the collapse of Brent prices due to the ongoing trade war between the US and China. With the core basis of Moscow’s budget being oil revenue, this loss may place increased pressure on Russia to bring the war in Ukraine to an end sooner rather than later. As the trade war between the US and China continues, this will have to be monitored.
On April 8th, the United Nations Security Council met to discuss the attack on Kryvyi Rih. Russia’s UN Ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, claimed during the meeting that the civilian deaths in Kryvyi Rih were the result of Ukraine attempting to intercept a Russian attack. He further stated that Moscow’s long-standing goal is to demilitarize Ukraine, which Moscow would achieve “using military or negotiating means” to ensure that “Ukraine is no longer a threat to Russia.” Nebenzia stated that Russia is ready for serious and practical dialogue but will not be deceived. This rhetoric indicates that Russia may not be willing to agree to a ceasefire like U.S. President Donald Trump wants; on the contrary, this rhetoric signals growing tension between Russia and the US as they attempt to negotiate peace for Ukraine.
On April 10th, the US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink, stepped down. Her resignation follows two failed ceasefire agreements between Ukraine and the US. President Zelenskyy also recently criticized Brink over her reaction to Russia’s attack on Kryvyi Rih. Brink’s resignation indicates diplomatic trouble between the US and Ukraine and could possibly further affect ceasefire negotiations. A former Ukrainian official stated that Brink felt that she could no longer do what was right under the Trump administration.
On April 10th and 11th, European allies and other “Coalition of the Willing” countries, including Canada, held meetings regarding a lasting peace in Ukraine. First, the “Coalition of the Willing” met to discuss operational logistics and key objectives, stating that more work needs to be done to iron out the fine details. The following day, Ukraine’s European allies pledged €21bn in military support to help fill the gap left by the US’s change in priorities. As Russia has previously stated any foreign troops in Ukraine would signal further escalation and does not want Ukraine to receive any more foreign aid, this signals a potential escalation in the conflict. It also indicates that Russia may become more aggressive and possibly hinder future ceasefire negotiations. Overall, these developments risk breeding further tension between Europe, the US, and other “Coalition of the Willing” countries if Russia exits negotiations.