Radicalization as a Threat to National Security: Insights from Latvia since Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine in 2022

Russia’s war in Ukraine has fueled political radicalization in Latvia with far-reaching implications for national security. This policy brief examines how radical attitudes and behaviours have evolved in Latvia’s society – particularly online – under the influence of Russian propaganda, disinformation, and cyber operations since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022.

 Latvia, in response to Russia’s aggression and anxiety regarding its shared border, has embarked on a set of political and symbolic actions to secure national security and decouple from the Soviet past. These consisted of extensive military, humanitarian, and political support to Ukraine, securing the national information space and shaping historical memory. The Latvian government has taken steps to prohibit Russian state-owned media and related online sites. Soviet-era monuments and symbols have been removed from public places. While these efforts were done in the name of preserving Latvian sovereignty, they also caused discontent among Russian-speakers, many of whom perceived this as an attempt to rewrite history.

Thus, Latvia faces a risk of radicalization among specific segments of its population as a direct and indirect consequence of Russia’s hybrid warfare. Hybrid threats have been systematically used to deepen societal cleavages and foment extremist sentiments. The Russian-speaking community (making up slightly more than one-third of Latvia’s population) is a target of Kremlin propaganda, wherein Latvia is framed as “Russophobic”, thus allowing Russia to spread its narratives among these populations.

This trend threatens Latvia’s internal security and has an added strategic security dimension as a polarized and unstable Latvia, a key NATO member, would benefit Russia and its efforts to undermine the solidarity of the NATO Alliance.