Addressing the NATO Credibility Gap in the Baltics and the South Caucasus: What are the Limits of the Alliance’s Engagement?

Key Findings

Key Takeaways 

• NATO and Western partners are widely viewed as desirable security partners in Armenia, Estonia, Georgia, and Latvia, with the strongest support in the Baltic states and Georgia. Perceptions of NATO’s security impact are highly positive in Estonia and Latvia, and most citizens support continued NATO membership. However, about one-third in each country expect to receive no external assistance or aid in the face of a security crisis. 

• In the South Caucasus, favourable views of NATO do not translate into expectations of crisis support. Few identify NATO as the main crisis responder, while self-reliance is the dominant view. In Armenia, public opinion is evenly split on alignment, with equal support for closer ties to NATO and Russia. 

• Considering this, NATO should increase regular and visible reassurance in regions where it is the main defense guarantor, especially in the Baltic states, and address the concerns of those who expect to be self-reliant during crises. In the South Caucasus, NATO should manage public expectations and focus on building resilience and preparedness, given limited direct security options. 

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