NPSIA Research Colloquium: Canada in the 21st Century – A Nation on The Edge of Forever?
Thursday, November 19, 2026 from 10:20 am to 11:30 am
- In-Person event
- 3224, Richcraft Hall, Carleton University
- 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, ON, K1S 5B6
NPSIA’s Third Research Colloquium will take place November 19th from 10:20am to 11:30am with a presentation from Dr. David Carment, Professor at NPSIA with a paper titled Canada in the 21st Century – A Nation on The Edge of Forever? This paper evaluates how systemic polarity and domestic leadership interact to shape Canadian foreign policy amid institutional socialization, regulatory lawfare, and engineered vulnerabilities. Bound by continentalist elite socialization, the Justin Trudeau administration treated U.S. coercion as a temporary aberration, reinforcing a state of managed subordination that left Canada exposed to unilateral shocks. This structural weakness is exemplified by Canada’s non-controlling entanglement in the Ukraine-Russia conflict and its diplomatic marginalization during the U.S.-Israel-Iran war. Conversely, Mark Carney’s leadership capitalized on an emerging multipolar transition to break this paradigm, shifting from a reliance on external security guarantees to a strategy of endurance. Using the August 2026 CUSMA negotiation breakdown as a stress test for self-reliance, the Carney government rejected submissive bargaining in support of domestic industrial capacity and technological sovereignty against “weaponized interdependence”. This divergence stems from a clash between structural realities and individual leadership agency. While systemic theories explain the constraints of an asymmetric distribution of power, they do not dictate how a government responds. In Canada’s case, structural dependence is heavily mediated by the leader’s cognitive framework, prevailing policy ideas and self-imposed limits on policy autonomy. This shift finds contrasts between Global Affairs Canada (GAC) which operates on a legacy model of rules-based internationalism and the Privy Council Office (PCO) which considers engineered vulnerabilities as direct national security liabilities. Thus, the central tension in Canada’s foreign policy statecraft is shifting from managing external threats to managing structural dependency. The emerging challenge is not simply to maintain alignment with allies, but to ensure that alignment does not harden into vulnerability.
The event will be held in RB 3224.
We will circulate the draft to those that register for the event.