Professor Daniel Rosenbloom’s New Publication

Professor Daniel Rosenbloom, Ivey Research Chair in Sustainability Transitions, has published a new paper titled “Dead-end pathways: conceptualizing, assessing, avoiding” which appears in PLOS Climate and was co-authored with James Meadowcroft, Jochen Markard, Jean-Sébastien Landry, and Moe Kabbara.

Emerging from an action research process, the paper develops a practical framework to assess whether near-term choices can build toward prosperous, net-zero futures or whether they waste scarce time and resources on pathways that cannot go the distance. The framework tests proposed pathways against three diagnostics: depth (can it get close to zero?), breadth (can it scale across the system?), and timeliness (can it deploy fast enough?). We demonstrate the framework through cases drawn from transport (CNG, ethanol, and e-fuels), each of which fail on one of these dimensions.

This work resonates with Canada’s current policy moment. As governments seek to accelerate major projects to unlock economic opportunities and respond to trade challenges, it is crucial to back options that deliver near-term benefits but also remain viable as the energy transition unfolds. Supporting pathways that cannot get close to zero emissions, scale, or deliver in time represent dead-ends – i.e., they delay progress and divert resources from genuine solutions.