Archives: Conflict Risk Assessment – Methodology Reports

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Georgia: A Risk Assessment Brief

Gaining its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, in 2004 Georgia remains a democratizing state made up of competing regions possessing greater historical and geographical cohesiveness than the country as a whole. Zviad Gamsakhurdia, Georgia’s first elected president, was overthrown in a military revolt in 1991-1992 and replaced by Eduard... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Ethiopia: A Risk Assessment Brief

Ethiopia's turbulent history is marked by authoritarian rule, repression of rights, famines, civil war, ethnic divisions, tense relations with neighbours, and political and economic instability. In addition, Ethiopia hosts more refugees than it produces. Despite these facts, at present a fragile peace prevails. Ethiopia: A Risk Assessment... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Democratic Republic of Congo: A Risk Assessment Brief

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), colonized by Belgium in 1885, became independent in 1960. Due to their interest in the vast minerals and other resources in the region, the US and Belgium backed the dictator Mobutu in overthrowing previous leader, Prime Minister Patrice Lumumba in 1960. Corruption siphoning off massive personal wealth, a... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Colombia Colombia: A Risk Assessment Brief

Colombia has a long history of violence, human rights abuse and civil unrest. In the late 19th century, the Spanish colonial ruling class divided into two political parties: the federalist liberals and centrist conservatives, marking the beginning of a long and heated political battle. Colombia Colombia: A Risk Assessment... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Angola: A Risk Assessment Brief

Portuguese explorers founded Angola’s capital, Luanda, in 1575, thus beginning 400 years of colonial rule. In the 1960s, various groups in Angola fought for independence, the most well known being the Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola (MPLA), and the União Nacional para a Independencia Total de Angola (UNITA). In 1975 a transitional... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Afghanistan: A Risk Assessment Brief

Afghanistan has had a turbulent history of conflict for over three decades. After the collapse of the constitutional monarchy led by King Zahir Shah in 1973 and the establishment of a republic by Muhammad Daud, the country fell into the throws of civil strife. A leftist coup that overthrew and killed Daud in 1978... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Responding to Terrorism: Implications For Regional and Global Stability

It is clear that Western responses to the terrorist attacks will have far reaching consequences for regional and global stability. It is out of grave humanitarian concern that the Forum on Early Warning and Early Response (FEWER) – a global network of organisations specialising in detecting early stage conflicts, warning against them, and... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Assessing Country Risk: Creating an Index of Severity

The development of a country’s capacity, legitimacy and authority, all essential features of country risk potential, is not a linear process but rather a function of a number of interrelated and dynamic structural factors. 1 This is especially relevant to explaining country risk since changing structural conditions can reverse (in very short... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Methodology of Sources for Indicators for the Caucasus and Central Asia

The HDI is a simple average of three indicators: longevity, as measured by life expectancy at birth; educational attainment, as measured by a combination of adult literacy (two-thirds weight) and the combined gross primary, secondary and tertiary enrolment ratio (one-third weight); and standard of living, as measured by real GDP per capita (PPP$).... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Risk Assessment Templates

Risk Assessment Template A4 Risk Assessment Template Risk Assessment Template:... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

The Fall-out of Military Strikes Against Afghanistan: Regional and Global Risks

The U.S.-led responses to the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 involve a range of military, diplomatic, intelligence and law enforcement measures. Following the recent launch of air strikes against Afghanistan, humanitarian and conflict prevention practitioners are asking what the fall-out will be. This policy brief provides an overview and... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Conflict Risk Assessment Report: Cambodia, Indonesia, Philippines

This report provides an indicators-based assessment of conflict risk in three South Asian countries of Cambodia, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The analysis crosses nine interrelated issue areas identified as underlying potential for conflict development: History of Armed Conflict; Governance and Political Instability; Militarization; Population... More

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