Over the last two years, Afghanistan has seen increased risk in four of its six measures of performance including Governance, the Economy, Human Development, Crime & Security making it now the second most fragile state in the CIFP index (moving up from fourth spot as measured in 2007). Using the ALC index of fragility Afghanistan now scores an extremely high risk rating in two areas. First, Afghanistan’s Authority risk scores are the highest of any of the 197 countries evaluated by CIFP. Second, Afghanistan has moved up to third place in the CIFP ranking of most fragile states in terms of Legitimacy. These shifts upward are largely indicative of increasing violence and instability over the past 18 months but there are also concerns with regional and local governance and economic management. With over 30,000 international troops in Afghanistan nearly ten years after initial deployment, the security situation in Afghanistan is still extremely frail and has deteriorated. Though, the country’s Capacity scores remain relatively unchanged since last measured, the prospects of reaching the UN Millennium Development Goals remain in peril. In particular, Afghanistan is struggling to achieve a better gender balance in access to economic opportunities, justice and education.
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CIFP Fragile States Report Afghanistan 2009