The future of Ukraine remains uncertain. Although the Crimean secession was virtually bloodless, the position of the peninsula’s minority populations is still unclear. One year post-referendum, Crimea is de facto Russian territory, incorporated at both political and societal levels, whilst in Eastern Ukraine, hostilities have significantly intensified. Recent surveys indicate that a substantial majority of the Crimean population support the Russian annexation and feel safe and secure in the territory. At the same time, a survey published by the Kiev-based Democratic Initiative Foundation found that 68 per cent of Ukrainians considered Crimea still to be part of Ukraine. 1 Who is right – the majority in Crimea or the Ukrainians who still see Crimea as part of Ukraine? Given these divergent perspectives, what does the future of Crimea hold for Ukraine as a whole? Can we expect more sanctions and more conflict in the shorter term – and along with these a wider role for regional organizations? Can a middle ground be found, based on political solutions and regional cooperation? What are the entry-points for engaging Crimea’s minorities?
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Engaging Crimea and Beyond: Perspectives on Conflict, Cooperation and Civil Society Development