Engaging Crimea and Beyond: Perspectives on Conflict, Cooperation and Civil Society Development
The future of Ukraine remains uncertain. Although the Crimean secession was virtually bloodless, the position of the peninsula’s minority populations is still unclear. One year post-referendum, Crimea is de facto Russian territory, incorporated at both political and societal levels, whilst in Eastern Ukraine, hostilities have significantly intensified. Recent surveys indicate that a substantial majority of the Crimean population support the Russian annexation and feel safe and secure in the territory. At the same time, a survey published by the Kiev-based Democratic Initiative Foundation found that 68 per cent of Ukrainians considered Crimea still to be part of Ukraine. 1 Who is right – the majority in Crimea or the Ukrainians who still see Crimea as part of Ukraine? Given these divergent perspectives, what does the future of Crimea hold for Ukraine as a whole? Can we expect more sanctions and more conflict in the shorter term – and along with these a wider role for regional organizations? Can a middle ground be found, based on political solutions and regional cooperation? What are the entry-points for engaging Crimea’s minorities?