Archives: Conflict Risk Assessment – Methodology Reports

Thursday, August 27, 2015

CIFP Needs Assessment Report

This assessment was conducted for the purposes of determining the needs of CIFP clients as the project begins to expand its capabilities and partnerships. This feedback has clarified both the positive and negative aspects of users perceptions of the database and its purpose. This information is critical for making informed decisions about future... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Early Warning Methodology Report

This report provides direction for researchers working on the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) project to tailor it to the needs of foreign policy analysts, the early warning research community, and the user base identified in the May 2000 Needs Assessment—findings of which note that interest and enthusiasm for CIFP is growing, and... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

CIFP Sample Country Survey: Kyrgystan

The Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) team has identified you as an expert in the present state of affairs in Kyrgyztan. We hope you'll be willing to share your insights by completing the enclosed survey regarding the conditions of foreign policy concern that presently exist in Kyrgyztan. CIFP Sample Country Survey:... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Preliminary Selection of Indicators

The Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) project has recently begun work on a pilot project in partnership with the Forum for Early Warning and Early Response (FEWER) and the University of Maryland Global Events Data System (GEDS). The project will begin the integration of the CIFP into the FEWER network, and will emphasize... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Interim Report: April 2001

As CIFP is approaching the half way point of Phase II development in accordance with the November 1999 proposal to CIDA, this document provides an interim report of progress made towards the project’s objectives, disbursements of project funds, and outlines the experiences to date. The Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) project began... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Conflict Vulnerability Analysis: Issues, Tools, and Responses

Given the reality that nine of the 22 countries in Sub-Sahara Africa with USAID bilateral missions are currently involved in or have been involved in internal conflict within the past five years, USAID missions are integrating conflict prevention, mitigation, and recovery (CPMR) perspectives more fully into its programming strategies. This... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Conflict Prevention, Gender and Early Warning: A Work in Progress

The integration of gender specific indicators into early warning systems is crucial for sustaining an effective approach to estimating conflict potential. Conflict affects women and men differently and although these effects vary widely across cultures depending upon the role of women in a particular society, it is clear that armed conflict... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

The Rise of NETPOLITIK: How the Internet Is Changing International Politics and Diplomacy

Concerns for the death or dismemberment of thousands of noncombatants throughout the world from hidden land mines led in 1992 to the formation of a nongovernmental organization (NGO) to mobilize constituencies toward banning land mines. As one solution to the problem, the new International Campaign to Ban Landmines proposed a multilateral treaty... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

The Effectiveness of Mediation to End Internal Conflict: Some Preliminary Results

Struggles involving civil wars, local insurrections or ethnic violence far outnumber those stemming from external aggression or conflict between states, especially in recent years. These internal conflicts, over identity, government or territory, are arguably more difficult to resolve through peaceful negotiation than their interstate... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Formal Models of Mediation and Intervention: A Stocktaking and Analysis of the Implications for Policy

International-relations theory can identify and frame important questions, but Pentagon and State Department officials will probably always be more interested in detailed case studies, prepared by area-studies experts. Theorizing about the causes of war might occasionally generate clean, law-like propositions that appeal to policy makers. But more... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Uzbekistan: A Risk Assessment Brief

Uzbekistan is plagued with both internal and external regional conflict that is tied to its neighbouring states Russia, Chechnya, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Xinjang (China). In Uzbekistan, the IMU, an armed opposition group, which opposes the states government, is seeking to establish an Islamic state. Uzbekistan is technically a republic,... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Uganda: A Risk Assessment Brief

The roots of Uganda's conflict lie within ethnic cleavages aggravated by the British colonial regime, which intentionally split the civil and military power dynamic in Uganda. Having recruited soldiers and labour from the north, while favouring the south in terms of social and economic development and technology, noticeable imbalance grew into a... More

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