This report presents a framework to direct the future efforts of researchers working on the CIFP project to tailor it to the needs of foreign policy analysts and the early warning research community. It describes procedures to translate information from the internationally-recognized CIFP database, in combination with insights from foreign affairs personnel and field level specialists, into reports of imminent dangers. Additionally, since the research design is at the planning stage, this preliminary overview is intended to provide CIFP researchers and interested users with the opportunity to suggest improvements before its formal venture into early warning analysis. Ultimately, this endeavour is undertaken with the goal of presenting analyses and policy recommendations that will assist policy makers in taking action to prevent, contain and mitigate economic, humanitarian and environmental crises, and the outbreak of violent conflicts.

Early Warning Methods: Background Report and Methodological Notes