The Northern third of the island is the primarily Turkish Cypriot & Turkish settler “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.” Although arguably de facto sovereign, TRNC is recognized as a state by only Turkey. The internationally recognized government de jure of all of Cyprus is the Republic of Cyprus with its capital in the south. This report undertakes an analysis of conflict risk based on risk assessment indicators and stakeholders (internal and external). It analyzes the relationship of stakeholders to the conflict in Cyprus, and investigates what the stabilizing and destabilizing factors of the risk assessment indicators are. The report concludes that the most likely outcome in the short term in Cyprus is a continuation of the status quo with high militarization, unpopular austerity measures, unsuccessful reunification talks and substandard treatment of refugees.

Cyprus Conflict Risk Diagnostic 2016