This diagnostic report examines the recent trends in structural factors from 2011 to 2014 in comparison to the 2006 Syria Baseline Report produced by the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP). It also examines the role of internal and external stakeholders, who have contributed to the ongoing conflict. The crucial obstacles preventing conflict resolution and stabilization in Syria are the involvement of complex regional and international actors, the sectarian character of the conflict and the resulting displacement of an estimated 10 million Syrians of their current population of 22.8 million. Despite recent attempts to negotiate a peace settlement, the continued structural deterioration and long-term impacts of the conflict have limited the potential for a resolution in the near future.

Syria Conflict Risk Diagnostic 2016