At present, Kosovo is experiencing a legitimacy and capacity issue in its state of affairs due to systemic isomorphic mimicry. It is trapped in a feedback loop, fostering ineffective governance, decreasing international recognition, and weak service delivery from its institutions. The primary fragility drivers are governance and economy, whereas the secondary fragility drivers are security and crime, human development, demography, and environment. The primary fragility drivers contribute to three main risks that are weakening its state capacity and legitimacy: informal economy, the rule of law, and service delivery. In addition to its issues with international recognition, Kosovo’s internal performance has been mostly stagnant across all indicators, but a recent change in the government has seen a decrease in its governance and political stability with the rise of PM Albin Kurti. This policy brief analyzes the historical
context, internal and external stakeholders, Kosovo’s fragility, and its risk factors to determine scenarios for the next 12 months (December 2019 to December 2020). The objective is to revitalize Kosovo’s appeal to the EU by providing policy recommendations that are entry points towards addressing Kosovo’s main fragility risks: an informal economy, the rule of law, and their service delivery. At the end of the document, three recommendations aim to assist Kosovo in improving its structure as a state and move towards the best-case scenario: non-partisan accountability measures,tax and custom enforcement, and security reform in criminal enforcement.

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