Archives: Conflict Risk Assessment – Methodology Reports

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Sudan: A Risk Assessment Brief

Sudan is an ancient country, once incorporated in the Egyptian empire. Under English colonial rule, Sudan gained its independence in 1956. Like many African countries at the time, Sudan started as a democracy and quickly slid into autocratic rule. Numerous coups, civil wars, and atrocities have stained Sudanese history since. Sudan: A Risk... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Sri Lanka : A Risk Assessment Brief

Since 1983, Sri Lanka has been the site of a protracted civil war between government forces and Tamil insurgents known as the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). In response to perceived political repression by the Sinhalese-dominated government, members of the LTTE want to create their own state in the northeast, home to the... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Sierra Leone: A Risk Assessment Brief

Sierra Leone: A Risk Assessment... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Philippines: A Risk Assessment Brief

The root causes of much of the current conflict in the Philippines are ethnic in nature. Comprising five percent of the Filipino population, Muslims are an ethnic minority in the nation as a whole, but are concentrated in the southern islands of Mindanaoi in the Sulu archipelago. This federal government, which has historically favoured... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Papua New Guinea : A Risk Assessment Brief

Papua New Guinea's population of 5.6 million is one of the most heterogeneous in the world, with more than 700 indigenous languages spoken by several thousand communities divided by mountainous terrain and sea. Approximately 85% of the population relies on semi-subsistence agriculture. Since independence from Australia in 1975, the country has... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Madagascar: A Risk Assessment Brief

Madagascar's population is comprised of mixed Asian and African origin. Asian features are predominant in the Central Highlands people (the Merina, 3 million citizens) while the coastal dwellers (the Betsileo, 2 million citizens) have African features. The main language spoken is Malagasy, a language that has Polynesian roots. Madagascar: A Risk... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Liberia: A Risk Assessment Brief

Liberia’s relatively stable and democratic First Republic collapsed into anarchy in 1979 following an increase in rice prices. In 1985 Samuel Doe seized control of the country in a military coup, and over the next twelve years Liberia would remain a hotspot for internal political, as well as military factionist movements. Numerous mediated... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Kyrgyzstan: A Risk Assessment Brief

The current tensions in Kyrgyzstan can be traced back to the legacy of Soviet rule in Central Asia. In the early 1920’s, Moscow attempted to fortify its centralized power in the region by curbing potential ethnic nationalist movements. To achieve this objective, the Soviet regime delineated borders across ethnic lines, thus creating ethnic... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Kashmir: A Risk Assessment Brief

The root of the conflict between India and Pakistan centers on the disputed region of Kashmir. Although the region was ostensibly ceded to India upon independence in 1947, the government of Pakistan has argued the unconstitutionality of the rule since that time, claiming that because Kashmir was occupied by a Muslim majority, it should... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Jamaica: A Risk Assessment Brief

Jamaica gained independence from Britain in 1962, and the Jamaican Labour Party (JLP) and the People’s National Party (PNP) have since shared power through free and fair elections. Prime Minister Percival J. Patterson (PNP) has been leading the country since 1992 but recently announced he would step down. Party leadership elections have been... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Guyana: A Risk Assessment Brief

Guyana's present state of affairs exists upon a backdrop of ethnic polarization, political tensions, poverty, economic instability, rising crime and drug trafficking. The ethnic tensions rest on a historical foundation that began as early as the 1600s, when the Dutch introduced African slaves to Guyana. Guyana: A Risk Assessment... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Guatemala: A Risk Assessment Brief

Throughout its history Guatemala has been one of the most iniquitous and violent societies in Latin America. Poverty is particularly acute in rural and indigenous communities, where illiteracy, infant mortality and malnutrition are pervasive (BBC, 2004a). Reforms to address these issues began in the 1940s, but were brought to an abrupt halt in... More

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