Archives: Conflict Risk Assessment – Methodology Reports

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Conflict Risk Assessment Report: West Africa: Mano River Union and Senegambia

This report provides an indicators-based assessment of conflict risk in the five West African countries of Gambia, Guinea, Liberia, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. The analysis crosses nine interrelated issue areas identified as underlying potential for conflict development: History of Armed Conflict; Governance and Political Instability;... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Conflict Risk Assessment Report Sub-Sahara Africa

This report provides an indicators-based assessment of conflict risk in Sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis crosses nine interrelated issue areas identified as underlying potential for conflict development: History of Armed Conflict; Governance and Political Instability; Militarization; Population Heterogeneity; Demographic Stress; Economic... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Conflict Risk Assessment Report African Great Lakes

This report provides an indicators-based assessment of conflict risk in the six East African/Great Lakes countries of Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. The analysis crosses nine interrelated issue areas identified as underlying potential for conflict development: History of Armed Conflict; Governance... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Conflict Risk Assessment Report: Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, and Ukraine

The last ten years have been a time of much change for the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC). The region as a whole has been struggling with the collapse of Socialism and the painful transition to democracy and capitalism. Periods of change and transition such as this often contribute to increased risk of... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Implications Of the Anti-Terrorism Campaign For Conflict Prevention

The Implications of the Anti-Terrorism Campaign for Conflict Prevention – A Preparedness Resource for the Field is our second report on the anti-terrorism campaign. Its aim is to shed light on implications of the campaign for conflict prevention efforts at a regional and global level. The report is prepared by analysts drawn from within... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

East Africa Diagnostics and Risk Assessments

Part II of the peacebuilding practitioners’ Regional Workshop on Conflict Early Warning and Response Methodology and Application was held in Nairobi, between February 16 – 22, 2003. There was a need for the participants who had attended the Part 1 workshop in July 2002 to gain more insight into Conflict Early Warning to Response... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Conflict Risk Assessment: Oceania

This report provides an analytical assessment of conflict risk in Oceania. The Oceania region can be further divided into the sub-regions (on the basis of geography, culture, language, etc.) Polynesia, Melanesia, and Micronesia. Conflict Risk Assessment:... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

CIFP Watch List Report No. 1

The goal of the project was to identify 3 countries at risk of violent armed conflict in the next 3 years in order for an appropriate intervention to be developed. The methodology for the watch list draws on open source information and the methodologies developed by CIFP researchers as noted in appendix a and... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

An Early Warning System for Timor-Leste

A Systematic Approach to Conflict Prevention Phase I: The Early Warning System (EWS) is intended to provide stakeholders in Timor-Leste with a conflict monitoring and prevention system. Like the UNDP EWS system established in Kosovo, it will be a strategic planning, early response, and policy-planning tool for development and peace-building actors... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Yemen Risk Assessment

The evolution towards Yemeni statehood can be viewed as the convergence of two separate and conflicting societies. North Yemen, know known as the Yemen Arab Republic (YAR), was ruled by the Ottoman Empire until its dissolution. In sharp contrast, South Yemen was ruled by the British until 1937 when it became a crown colony.... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Pakistan Risk Assessment

Beginning with its bloody independence from Britain in 1947, Pakistan has been a country in turmoil that has lurched from one crisis to another and has been stained by violence and conflict. Its birth was marked by unprecedented, spontaneous, and massive population transfers between itself and India, its neighbour and rival. More enduring has... More

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Honduras Risk Assessment

Discovered in 1502, Honduras remained under Spanish administration until achieving independence in 1821. Military rule, which began in 1963 with a military coup that displaced a democratically-elected regime in 1963, lasted until the reinstatement of democracy in 1982. The current president, Manuel Zelaya (PLH), gained office in 2006. His program... More

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