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Saturday, March 13, 2021
In many ways, the state of Somalia has become synonymous with ceaseless conflict, militia groups, and insecurity. This plague of insecurity has been brought on by many exacerbating factors in the latter part of 2020 and the beginning of 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic, uptick in insurgencies, and environmental adversities serve to highlight... More
2021 Somalia Conflict Diagnostic... More
Friday, March 12, 2021
Following the increased tensions and arms exports that preceded the September 2020 conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh, a November 9 ceasefire agreement was reached to limit the violent interaction between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This follows a long history of war and disagreements over the disputed region, and has been... More
2021 Nagorno Karabakh Conflict Diagnostic... More
In October 2020, Saharawi refugees loyal to the Popular Front for the Liberation of Saguia el-Hamra and Rio de Oro, otherwise known as Polisario Front (PF), blocked a road near the village of Guerguerate, stranding goods and people in the demilitarized border zone in Western Sahara (WS). The emergence of Moroccan forces moving in... More
2021 Morocco-Western Sahara Conflict Diagnostic... More
Monday, December 21, 2020
Lebanon at the Crossroads... More
Decades of sectarian politics, coupled with poor economic policies, have made it challenging for Lebanon to provide its population with basic services. The indicators are worrisome. The GDP growth rate is at -5.6% as of 2019 and the inflation rate is at 136%. Recent triggers such as the influx of Syrian refugees (1.5 million,... More
Chad... More
Chad's trajectory is shaped by a history of conflict, ethnic cleavages, and unequal power relations. The Chad Fragility Brief 2021current President, Idriss Deby, has been in power for 30 years and will likely stay in office until 2033. During his time in office, the President's main priorities have been maintaining his privileged position and... More
Friday, December 18, 2020
Ethiopia Fragility Brief 2021 As a cultural mosaic of over 80 diverse ethnic groups, interethnic tensions, power dynamics, and historical context are central to understanding all aspects of Ethiopia’s political, economic, and social affairs. Faulty democratic structures, declining legitimacy, persistent isomorphic mimicry, and a frail social... More
Burkina Faso Fragility Brief... More
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