Archives: Conflict Risk Assessment – Methodology Reports

Saturday, June 30, 2012

Nuba- Sudan Conflict Report 2012

Following the partition of Sudan in July 2011, the breakdown of the CPA process on transitional governance has led the Nuba Mountain Region to a state of crisis, stemming from fragmented tribes with ethno-political allegiances to President al-Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP), or the Nuba-backed SPLM-N. Furthermore, GoS initiated aerial... More

Monday, June 25, 2012

Mali Conflict Presentation 2012

The objective is to obtain approval‐in‐principle for Objective Obtain approval in principle for recommended policy option to address current current conflict conflict in Mali from a Government Government of Canada (GC) perspective. Mali Conflict Presentation... More

Saturday, June 23, 2012

Moro Ethnic Conflict Report 2012

The struggle for self-determination by the Moro people in the Southern Philippines began in 1565 under Spanish colonial rule and is still an unresolved conflict today. Rooted in primordial notions of homeland, indoctrination, social marginalization, and historical displacement, the Moro people and the government have engaged in multiple rounds of... More

Saturday, June 23, 2012

Toubou-Libya Conflict Presentation 2012

Toubou-Libya Conflict Presentation... More

Saturday, June 23, 2012

Libya Toubou Conflict Report 2012

The fall of Muammar Qaddafi‟s regime in 2011 has sparked an escalation of ethnic tensions in Libya‟s southern province of Fezzan, where indigenous Toubous1 have experienced recent violent clashes with local Arab tribes, particularly the Zwai. The towns of Sabha and Kufra remain under a tense ceasefire between the heavily-armed tribal militias,... More

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Following Through on the Promise of Prevention

The goal of the project was to identify 3 countries at risk of violent armed conflict in the next 1-3 years in order for an appropriate intervention to be developed. This included: 1. A preliminary selection which identified 10 countries that are not yet at a level of significant violent conflict but which exhibit... More

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Zimbabwe Diagnostic Brief

The current political, economic and social climate in Zimbabwe is characterized by significant issues which undermine the stability of the state. The political stalemate between Mugabe’s ZANU‐PF party and the Opposition led by MDC‐T under Tsvangirai creates a climate of political uncertainty characterized by violence. The weakness of the... More

Thursday, November 17, 2011

A Risk Assessment Report Myanmar

The Union of Myanmar (Burma) has suffered protracted political and ethnic conflict for the past 63 years. Key conflict supporting trends can be found in the following CIFP key indicators: Military, Governance and Political Instability, Population Heterogeneity, Human Development, History of Armed Conflict. As such, this diagnostic finds that the... More

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Tajikistan – A Risk Assessment

Tajikistan is the only former soviet Central Asian republic to experience large-scale civil conflict. War has been a causal factor in Tajikistan remaining the most impoverished state in the region, consequently resulting in a deteriorating security infrastructure. This diagnostic found that history of armed conflict, international linkages and... More

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Syria – A Risk Assessment

Despite objections from the international community, including the UN, the US, the EU, and Turkey, an end to the bloodshed in Syria appears distant. Vetoes at the Security Council by China and Russia have prevented stronger sanctions or outside intervention, and with key supporters of the Syrian regime in Iran and Hezbollah, Bashar's military... More

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Guatemala – Conflict Diagnostic

Since 2006, Guatemala has undergone numerous trade reforms and experienced favourable economic progress, yet continues to be ranked near the bottom of most global indices for equality and social indicators.1, 2 The 1996 Peace Accord, which put an end to 36 years of civil war between the government and various insurgent groups has enabled... More

Sunday, November 28, 2010

North Korea Risk Factors

North Korea Risk... More

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